Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32133161›Full record

ArticleBMJ global health2020

The impact of physician migration on mortality in low and middle-income countries: an economic modelling study.

Saurabh Saluja, Niclas Rudolfson, Benjamin Ballard Massenburg, John G Meara, Mark G Shrime

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ global health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 64 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
64citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
10.9field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

64 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 116 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  7. The Iran Healthcare Professionals' Charter of Rights.Archives of Iranian medicine · 2026
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4 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 4 institutions in 5 countries.

Saurabh Saluja *Division of Pediatric Surgery, Department of Surgery, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
Niclas Rudolfson *Program in Global Surgery and Social Change, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2393-8494
Benjamin Ballard MassenburgProgram in Global Surgery and Social Change, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8570-5178
John G MearaProgram in Global Surgery and Social Change, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Mark G ShrimeProgram in Global Surgery and Social Change, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Harvard University · USBoston Children's Hospital · USMassachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary · USWorld Health Organization - Pakistan · PK

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: The WHO estimates a global shortage of 2.8 million physicians, with severe deficiencies especially in low and middle-income countries (LMIC). The unequitable distribution of physicians worldwide is further exacerbated by the migration of physicians from LMICs to high-income countries (HIC). This large-scale migration has numerous economic consequences which include increased mortality associated with inadequate physician supply in LMICs. Methods: We estimate the economic cost for LMICs due to excess mortality associated with physician migration. To do so, we use the concept of a value of statistical life and marginal mortality benefit provided by physicians. Uncertainty of our estimates is evaluated with Monte Carlo analysis. Results: We estimate that LMICs lose US$15.86 billion (95% CI $3.4 to $38.2) annually due to physician migration to HICs. The greatest total costs are incurred by India, Nigeria, Pakistan and South Africa. When these costs are considered as a per cent of gross national income, the cost is greatest in the WHO African region and in low-income countries. Conclusion: The movement of physicians from lower to higher income settings has substantial economic consequences. These are not simply the result of the movement of human capital, but also due to excess mortality associated with loss of physicians. Valuing these costs can inform international and domestic policy discussions that are meant to address this issue.

Indexed as

Developing CountriesModels, EconomicPhysiciansAfrica South of the SaharaAsia, WesternHumansMortalityepidemiologyhealth economicshealth policies and all other topicsmedical demography

Identifiers

PMID32133161
PMCPMC7042584
OpenAlexW2999711677

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.