Associations between geographical environment and systolic pulmonary arterial pressure of Chinese adults: impact analysis and predictive modeling.

Since systolic pulmonary arterial pressure (SPAP) is an important diagnostic indicator for various cardiovascular diseases, it is of great significance to determine scientific SPAP reference value in clinical application. However, the SPAP reference values currently have not been applied under a unified standard, and its formulation does not consider the impacts from geographical environment which has proved to be closely associated with SPAP. This study aims to quantify the impacts of geographical factors on SPAP and formulate scientific SPAP reference values, thereby providing support for more accurate diagnosis. Measured SPAP values of 4550 healthy adults were collected from 88 cities across China, and 11 geographical factors were selected. Four geographical factors with significant impacts on SPAP were determined via correlation analysis, including two positive factors (altitude, soil organic matter) and two negative ones (longitude, annual average temperature). Then partial least-squares regression analysis (PLSR) and trend surface analysis were applied to establish predictive models. Through model test using both collected and simulated SPAP data of control points, the PLSR model was determined to have better prediction accuracy and was selected as optimal model to calculate the SPAP reference values of 2322 cities in China. The predictive results ranged from 22.09 to 31.77 mmHg. Finally, hotspot analysis and kriging interpolation method were applied to explore the spatial distribution of SPAP reference values. The result of spatial analysis shows that SPAP reference values of Chinese adults decreased gradually from the West to East in China. This study indicated the significant impacts of geographical environment on SPAP and established predictive model for determining SPAP reference values, which is expected to help enhance clinical diagnostic accuracy.