ArticleScientific reports2020
Chaos in disease outbreaks among prey.
Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 22 citations in OpenAlex.
- Natural Exponential and Three-Dimensional Chaotic System.Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2023Article
- The Chaotic Behavior of the Spread of Infection during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- COVID-19 in Africa: Underreporting, demographic effect, chaotic dynamics, and mitigation strategy impact.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- An alternating active-dormitive strategy enables disadvantaged prey to outcompete the perennially active prey through Parrondo's paradox.BMC biology · 2021Article
- The Chaotic Behavior of the Spread of Infection During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States and Globally.IEEE access : practical innovations, open solutions · 2021Article
- Demand-capacity modelling and COVID-19 disease: identifying themes for future NHS planning.Anaesthesia · 2020Article
- The uneasy coexistence of predators and pathogens.The European physical journal. E, Soft matter · 2020Article
- Epidemiologically and Socio-economically Optimal Policies via Bayesian Optimization.Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering : an international journal of engineering and technology · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Epidemics are highly unpredictable, and so are real-world population dynamics. In this paper, we examine a dynamical model of an ecosystem with one predator and two prey species of which one carries a disease. We find that the system behaves chaotically for a wide range of parameters. Using the allometric mass scaling of animal and disease lifetimes, we predict chaos if (a) the disease is infectious enough to persist, and (b) it affects the larger prey species. This provides another example of chaos in a Lotka-Volterra system and a possible explanation for the apparent randomness of epizootic outbreaks.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.