ArticleJournal of clinical medicine2020
Backcalculating the Incidence of Infection with COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess.
Article in Journal of clinical medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- The Occurrence Birth-Death Process for Combined-Evidence Analysis in Macroevolution and Epidemiology.Systematic biology · 2022Article
- Using high-resolution contact networks to evaluate SARS-CoV-2 transmission and control in large-scale multi-day events.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Novel spatiotemporal feature extraction parallel deep neural network for forecasting confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019.Socio-economic planning sciences · 2022Article
- Mosques in Japan responding to COVID-19 pandemic: Infection prevention and support provision.International journal of disaster risk reduction : IJDRR · 2022Article
- Wuhan's experience in curbing the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19).International health · 2021Article
- Lack of cross-transmission of SARS-CoV-2 between passenger's cabins on theBuilding and environment · 2021Article
- Estimation of the Actual Incidence of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Emergent Hotspots: The Example of Hokkaido, Japan during February-March 2020.Journal of clinical medicine · 2021Article
- Article
- Use of US Public Health Travel Restrictions during COVID-19 Outbreak on Diamond Princess Ship, Japan, February-April 2020.Emerging infectious diseases · 2021Review
- SARS-CoV-2 infections among Australian passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A retrospective cohort study.PloS one · 2021Article
- Assessment of global asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and management practices from China.International journal of biological sciences · 2021Review
- Creating and applying SIR modified compartmental model for calculation of COVID-19 lockdown efficiency.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2020Article
- Incidentally discovered COVID-19 in low-suspicion patients-a threat to front line health care workers.Emergency radiology · 2020Article
- Initial whole-genome sequencing and analysis of the host genetic contribution to COVID-19 severity and susceptibility.Cell discovery · 2020Article
- Article
- Construction of the Infection Curve of Local Cases of COVID-19 in Hong Kong using Back-Projection.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Contact Tracing Assessment of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in Taiwan and Risk at Different Exposure Periods Before and After Symptom Onset.JAMA internal medicine · 2020Article
- The contribution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections to transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.eLife · 2020Article
- Haplotype networks of SARS-CoV-2 infections in theProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
Abstract
To understand the time-dependent risk of infection on a cruise ship, the Diamond Princess, I estimated the incidence of infection with novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The epidemic curve of a total of 199 confirmed cases was drawn, classifying individuals into passengers with and without close contact and crew members. A backcalculation method was employed to estimate the incidence of infection. The peak time of infection was seen for the time period from 2 to 4 February 2020, and the incidence has abruptly declined afterwards. The estimated number of new infections among passengers without close contact was very small from 5 February on which a movement restriction policy was imposed. Without the intervention from 5 February, it was predicted that the cumulative incidence with and without close contact would have been as large as 1373 (95% CI: 570, 2176) and 766 (95% CI: 587, 946) cases, respectively, while these were kept to be 102 and 47 cases, respectively. Based on an analysis of illness onset data on board, the risk of infection among passengers without close contact was considered to be very limited. Movement restriction greatly reduced the number of infections from 5 February onwards.
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