SynthesisPLoS neglected tropical diseases2020
Projecting the future of dengue under climate change scenarios: Progress, uncertainties and research needs.
Synthesis in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
33 citing papers in PubMed.
- Efficacy of rupatadine in reducing the incidence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in patients with acute dengue: A randomised, double blind, placebo-controlled trial.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Trial
- Dengue and aging: challenges and opportunities in prevention and care. A narrative review.Emerging microbes & infections · 2026Review
- Severe Dengue in Children: Pathogenesis, Early Recognition, and Evidence-Informed Management.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Review
- Modelling the impact of climate on cholera: a case study of Kolkata.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Dengue Incidence, Seroprevalence, and Expansion Factors from Active Surveillance, Brazil, 2016-2021.Emerging infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Projections of dengue epidemics attributable to climate change in Peru.BMJ global health · 2026Article
- Tetravalent microprojection-based dengue chimeric virus vaccine raises potent neutralising antibodies in mice.NPJ vaccines · 2025Article
- Platelet dynamics and thrombocytopenia in dengue fever: A prospective cohort study from Shenzhen, China.New microbes and new infections · 2025Article
- Climate warming is expanding dengue burden in the Americas and Asia.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Immune profiling in subclinical secondary dengue-infected cases reveals adaptive immune signatures correlated to protection from severe dengue.Cell host & microbe · 2025Article
- Current and Future Spatial Distribution of theInsects · 2025Article
- Estimating Dengue Outbreak Thresholds in West Africa: A Comprehensive Analysis of Climatic Influences in Burkina Faso, 2018-2024.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Article
- Climate warming is expanding dengue burden in the Americas and Asia.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Review
- Genetic and structural characterization of dengue virus involved in the 2023 autochthonous outbreaks in central Italy.Emerging microbes & infections · 2024Article
- DENV-1 Infection of Macrophages Induces Pyroptosis and Causes Changes in MicroRNA Expression Profiles.Biomedicines · 2024Article
- Mapping environmental suitability changes for arbovirus mosquitoes in Southeast Asia: 1960-2020.iScience · 2024Article
- The Flavivirus Non-Structural Protein 5 (NS5): Structure, Functions, and Targeting for Development of Vaccines and Therapeutics.Vaccines · 2024Review
- Dengue.Lancet (London, England) · 2024Review
- Climate change impacts on dengue transmission areas in Espírito Santo state, Brazil.Oxford open immunology · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and its transmission is closely linked to climate. We aimed to review available information on the projection of dengue in the future under climate change scenarios.
methodsUsing five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science), a systematic review was conducted to retrieve all articles from database inception to 30th June 2019 which projected the future of dengue under climate change scenarios. In this review, "the future of dengue" refers to disease burden of dengue, epidemic potential of dengue cases, geographical distribution of dengue cases, and population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue.
resultsSixteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and five of them projected a global dengue future. Most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961-1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using "population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue" or "epidemic potential of dengue cases" as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future.
conclusionsProjecting the future of dengue requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will facilitate the development of tailored climate change adaptation strategies to manage dengue.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.