ArticleScience advances2020
Intertropical convergence zone variability in the Neotropics during the Common Era.
Article in Science advances, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Modeling the rise and demise of Classic Maya cities: Climate, conflict, and economies of scale.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Classic Maya response to multiyear seasonal droughts in Northwest Yucatán, Mexico.Science advances · 2025Article
- A comprehensive stalagmite investigation distinguishing anthropogenic and natural signals in Madagascar between 1680 and 1860.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- An annually resolved 5700-year storm archive reveals drivers of Caribbean cyclone frequency.Science advances · 2025Article
- Seasonal ecophysiology of two páramo species: the dominance of light over water limitations.Frontiers in plant science · 2025Article
- Coastal Dune Vegetation Dynamism and Anthropogenic-Induced Transitions in the Mexican Caribbean during the Last Decade.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- The strength, position, and width changes of the intertropical convergence zone since the Last Glacial Maximum.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Decline in seasonal predictability potentially destabilized Classic Maya societies.Communications earth & environment · 2023Article
- Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Interhemispheric antiphasing of neotropical precipitation during the past millennium.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- Little Ice Age abruptly triggered by intrusion of Atlantic waters into the Nordic Seas.Science advances · 2021Article
- Solar forcing of early Holocene droughts on the Yucatán peninsula.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Rainfall, temperature, and Classic Maya conflict: A comparison of hypotheses using Bayesian time-series analysis.PloS one · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Large changes in hydroclimate in the Neotropics implied by proxy evidence, such as during the Little Ice Age, have been attributed to meridional shifts of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), although alternative modes of ITCZ variability have also been suggested. Here, we use seasonally resolved stalagmite rainfall proxy data from the modern northern limit of the ITCZ in southern Belize, combined with records from across the Neotropics and subtropics, to fingerprint ITCZ variability during the Common Era. Our data are consistent with models that suggest ITCZ expansion and weakening during globally cold climate intervals and contraction and intensification during global warmth. As a result, regions currently in the margins of the ITCZ in both hemispheres are likely transitioning to more arid and highly variable conditions, aggravating current trends of increased social unrest and mass migration.
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