Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32108268›Full record

ArticleArchives of osteoporosis2020

Epidemiology of hip fractures in Bulgaria: development of a country-specific FRAX model.

E Kirilova, H Johansson, N Kirilov, S Vladeva, T Petranova, Z Kolarov, E Liu, M Lorentzon, L Vandenput, N C Harvey and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Archives of osteoporosis, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. A Modeling Study for Hip Fracture Rates in Romania.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

E KirilovaMedical University of Sofia, Sofia, Bulgaria.
H JohanssonMary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
N KirilovMedical University of Sofia, Sofia, Bulgaria.
S VladevaMedical Faculty, Trakia University, Stara Zagora, Bulgaria.
T PetranovaMedical University of Sofia, Sofia, Bulgaria.
Z KolarovMedical University of Sofia, Sofia, Bulgaria.
E LiuMary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
M LorentzonMary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
L VandenputMary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
N C HarveyMRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
E McCloskeyCentre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
John A KanisMary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia. w.j.pontefract@sheffield.ac.uk.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A retrospective population-based survey was undertaken in a region of Bulgaria to determine the incidence of hip fracture. The estimated number of hip fractures nationwide for 2015 was 9322 and is predicted to increase to 11,398 in 2050. The hip fracture rates were used to create a FRAX model.

objectiveTo describe the epidemiology of hip fractures in Bulgaria, which was then used to develop the country-specific fracture prediction FRAX® tool.

methodsWe carried out a retrospective population-based survey in Stara Zagora, Bulgaria, representing approximately 4.6% of the country's population. We identified hip fractures occurring in 2015, 2016 and 2017 from hospital registers and primary care sources held by the regional health insurance agency. Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for Bulgaria. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from neighbouring countries having FRAX models.

resultsThe incidence of hip fracture applied nationally suggested that the estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2015 was 9322 and is predicted to increase to 11,398 in 2050. FRAX-based probabilities were higher in Bulgaria than those in Serbia or Romania, lower than those in Turkey and similar to those in Greece.

conclusionThe FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Bulgarian population and help guide decisions about treatment.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalAgedAged, 80 and overAge DistributionBulgariaFemaleGreeceHip FracturesHospitalsHumansIncidenceInsurance, HealthMaleMiddle AgedOsteoporotic FracturesProbabilityBulgariaEpidemiologyFracture probabilityFRAXHip fracture

Identifiers

PMID32108268
PMCPMC7046566

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.