Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32107270›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2020

Prevention versus early detection for long-term control of melanoma and keratinocyte carcinomas: a cost-effectiveness modelling study.

Louisa Gordon, Catherine Olsen, David C Whiteman, Thomas M Elliott, Monika Janda, Adele Green

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed
1.8field-weighted citation impact, top 13% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 38 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. International Dermoscopy Society consensus recommendations for the management of lentigo maligna.Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology : JEADV · 2026
    Review
  2. Cost-Effectiveness of Current Therapeutic Strategies for Melanoma.Current treatment options in oncology · 2025
    Review
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. The effects of exposure to solar radiation on human health.Photochemical & photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology · 2023
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. The State of Melanoma: Emergent Challenges and Opportunities.Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research · 2021
    Article
  13. Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2020.Photochemical & photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology · 2021
    Article
  14. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Louisa GordonDepartment of Population Health, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia Louisa.Gordon@qimrberghofer.edu.au.ORCID 0000-0002-3159-4249
Catherine OlsenCancer Control Group, Department of Population Health, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Herston, Queensland, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-4483-1888
David C WhitemanSchool of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Thomas M ElliottDepartment of Population Health, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Monika JandaCentre of Health Services Research, Faculty of Medicine, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Adele GreenDepartment of Population Health, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute · AUQueensland University of Technology · AUThe University of Queensland · AU

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo compare the long-term economic impact of melanoma prevention by sun protection, with the corresponding impact of early detection of melanoma to decrease melanoma deaths.

designCost-effectiveness analysis using Markov cohort model. Data were primarily from two population-based randomised controlled trials, epidemiological and costing reports, and included flow-on effects for keratinocyte cancers (previously non-melanoma skin cancers) and actinic keratoses.

settingQueensland, Australia.

participantsMen and women with a mean age 50 years modelled for 30 years.

interventionsDaily sunscreen use (prevention) compared with annual clinical skin examinations (early detection) and comparing these in turn with the status quo. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Costs, counts of melanoma, melanoma deaths, keratinocyte cancers, life years and quality-adjusted life years.

resultsPer 100 000 individuals, for early detection, primary prevention and without intervention, there were 2446, 1364 and 2419 new melanomas, 556, 341 and 567 melanoma deaths, 64 452, 47 682 and 64 659 keratinocyte cancers and £493.5, £386.4 and £406.1 million in economic costs, respectively. There were small differences between prevention and early detection in life years saved (0.09%) and quality-adjusted life years gained (0.10%).

conclusionsCompared with early detection of melanoma, systematic sunscreen use at a population level will prevent substantial numbers of new skin tumours, melanoma deaths and save healthcare costs. Primary prevention through daily use of sunscreen is a priority for investment in the control of melanoma.

Indexed as

CarcinomaCost-Benefit AnalysisMelanomaAustraliaEarly Detection of CancerFemaleHumansKeratinocytesMaleMiddle AgedQueenslandRandomized Controlled Trials as Topiccost-effectivenessearly detectionkeratinocyte carcinomasmelanomaprimary prevention

Identifiers

PMID32107270
PMCPMC7202703
OpenAlexW3007688117

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.