Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32106285›Full record

ArticleJournal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA2020

Physician understanding, explainability, and trust in a hypothetical machine learning risk calculator.

William K Diprose, Nicholas Buist, Ning Hua, Quentin Thurier, George Shand, Reece Robinson

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 90 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
90citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

90 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  18. So You've Got a High AUC, Now What? An Overview of Important Considerations when Bringing Machine-Learning Models from Computer to Bedside.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025
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30 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

William K DiproseDepartment of Medicine, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
Nicholas BuistDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Whangarei Hospital, Whangarei, New Zealand.
Ning HuaOrion Health, Auckland, New Zealand.
Quentin ThurierOrion Health, Auckland, New Zealand.
George ShandClinical Education and Training Unit, Waitematā District Health Board, Auckland, New Zealand.
Reece RobinsonOrion Health, Auckland, New Zealand.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveImplementation of machine learning (ML) may be limited by patients' right to "meaningful information about the logic involved" when ML influences healthcare decisions. Given the complexity of healthcare decisions, it is likely that ML outputs will need to be understood and trusted by physicians, and then explained to patients. We therefore investigated the association between physician understanding of ML outputs, their ability to explain these to patients, and their willingness to trust the ML outputs, using various ML explainability methods. MATERIALS AND

methodsWe designed a survey for physicians with a diagnostic dilemma that could be resolved by an ML risk calculator. Physicians were asked to rate their understanding, explainability, and trust in response to 3 different ML outputs. One ML output had no explanation of its logic (the control) and 2 ML outputs used different model-agnostic explainability methods. The relationships among understanding, explainability, and trust were assessed using Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel tests of association.

resultsThe survey was sent to 1315 physicians, and 170 (13%) provided completed surveys. There were significant associations between physician understanding and explainability (P < .001), between physician understanding and trust (P < .001), and between explainability and trust (P < .001). ML outputs that used model-agnostic explainability methods were preferred by 88% of physicians when compared with the control condition; however, no particular ML explainability method had a greater influence on intended physician behavior.

conclusionsPhysician understanding, explainability, and trust in ML risk calculators are related. Physicians preferred ML outputs accompanied by model-agnostic explanations but the explainability method did not alter intended physician behavior.

Indexed as

Attitude of Health PersonnelAttitude to ComputersDecision Making, Computer-AssistedMachine LearningPhysiciansArtificial IntelligenceHumansPulmonary EmbolismRisk AssessmentSurveys and QuestionnairesTrustUser-Computer Interfaceartificial intelligencedecision supportexplainabilityinterpretabilitymedicine

Identifiers

PMID32106285
PMCPMC7647292

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.