ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2020
Effects of updated demography, disability weights, and cervical cancer burden on estimates of human papillomavirus vaccination impact at the global, regional, and national levels: a PRIME modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 42 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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42 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 67 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prevalence of non-vaccine high-risk HPV cervical infections in vaccinated women: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Pooled it
- The Oncological Implication of Sentinel Lymph Node in Early Cervical Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Oncological Outcomes and Type of Recurrences.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2022Pooled it
- Nuclear Import of E2F1 Regulated by KPNB1 is Essential for Proliferation and Invasion of Cervical Cancer Cells.Applied biochemistry and biotechnology · 2026Article
- Article
- Epidemiology, outcomes of treatment, and survival of cervical cancer in Kazakhstan: a nationwide population-based study.Frontiers in oncology · 2026Article
- Cost-effectiveness of single-dose versus two-dose HPV vaccination: a Markov cohort modelling analysis of a Kenya-India LMIC composite.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Cost-effectiveness of a behavioral insights-informed digital campaign to increase HPV vaccination in Bangladesh.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025Article
- Modelling epidemiological and economics processes - the case of cervical cancer.Health economics review · 2025Review
- Factors related to stigma among patients with cervical cancer having chemotherapy after surgery in China: A cross-sectional study.Belitung nursing journal · 2025Article
- Analysis of the differences between HPV-independent and HPV-related cervical adenocarcinoma.Frontiers in oncology · 2025Article
- Human papillomavirus vaccination coverage among young women in the three sub-Saharan African countries using Demographic and Health Surveys data.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Article
- HPV-Related Cancers in Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Comprehensive Review.Acta medica academica · 2024Review
- Novel bioinformatic approaches show the role of driver genes in the progression of cervical cancer: An in-silico study.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Optimal human papillomavirus vaccination strategies in the context of vaccine supply constraints in 100 countries.EClinicalMedicine · 2024Article
- Equity impact of HPV vaccination on lifetime projections of cervical cancer burden among cohorts in 84 countries by global, regional, and income levels, 2010-22: a modelling study.EClinicalMedicine · 2024Article
- Improving cervical cancer continuum of care towards elimination in Ethiopia: a scoping review.Cancer causes & control : CCC · 2024Article
- Assessment of knowledge and perceptions of human papillomavirus vaccine and its determinants among women who have eligible daughters in Debre Berhan City, Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study.Frontiers in oncology · 2024Article
- Willingness to accept human papilloma virus vaccination and its associated factors among parents with eligible daughters in Addis Zemen town, Northwest Ethiopia.Infectious agents and cancer · 2023Article
- Global impact and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose human papillomavirus vaccination schedules: a comparative modelling analysis.BMC medicine · 2023Article
- Fine-grained mathematical modeling for cost-effectiveness evaluation of public health policies for cervical cancer, with application to a Colombian case study.BMC public health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) has been used around the world to assess the health impact and cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in girls. We updated PRIME with new data and methods for demography, disability weights, and cervical cancer burden, and generated revised estimates of the health impact of HPV vaccination at the global, regional, and national levels for 177 countries.
methodsPRIME was updated with population demography of the UN World Population Prospects (UNWPP) 2019 revision, disability weights of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study, and cervical cancer burden from the Global Cancer Incidence, Mortality and Prevalence (GLOBOCAN) 2018 database. We estimated the lifetime health benefits for bivalent or quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccination of 9-year-old and 12-year-old girls at 90% coverage during 2020-29 in 177 countries. Health impact was presented in terms of cervical cancer cases, deaths, or disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted per 1000 vaccinated girls in comparison with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination, and the number of girls needed to be vaccinated to prevent a single case, death, or DALY.
findingsIn estimating the health impact of HPV vaccination of 9-year-old girls, the combined updates to demography, disability weights, cervical cancer burden estimates resulted in a 26% increase in the estimated number of cases averted, a 51% increase in deaths averted, and a 72% increase in DALYs averted per 1000 vaccinated girls for both the bivalent or quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccines, compared with previous estimates. With the updated model, the bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccine was estimated to avert 15 cases, 12 deaths, and 243 DALYs per 1000 vaccinated girls, and the nonavalent HPV vaccine was estimated to avert 19 cases, 14 deaths, and 306 DALYs per 1000 vaccinated girls. The health benefits of vaccination of 12-year-old girls were estimated to be similar but slightly decreased in comparison with vaccination of 9-year-old girls.
interpretationHPV vaccination provides greater health benefits and is more cost-effective than was previously estimated. The demography update, which incorporates population aging, has the largest effect on the health impact estimates. The WHO African region is expected to gain the greatest health benefits and should be prioritised for HPV vaccination.
fundingGavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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