ArticleJournal of clinical medicine2020
Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13-23, 2020.
Article in Journal of clinical medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 84 papers.
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Who cites it
84 citing papers in PubMed.
- Short-term forecasting and impact analysis of COVID-19 and the stock market in Morocco using ARIMA.PloS one · 2026Article
- Predictive and interpretable machine learning for COVID-19 resurgences: the role of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the post-pandemic era.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Models for SARS-CoV-2 health policies: social distancing amid vaccination and virus variants.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- The Future Diabetes Mortality: Challenges in Meeting the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal of Reducing Premature Mortality from Diabetes.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Article
- Evaluating the forecasting performance of ensemble sub-epidemic frameworks and other time series models for the 2022-2023 mpox epidemic.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Reconstruction of incidence reporting rate for SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of COVID-19 pandemic in the US.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- GrowthPredict: A toolbox and tutorial-based primer for fitting and forecasting growth trajectories using phenomenological growth models.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Predicting alfalfa leaf area index by non-linear models and deep learning models.Frontiers in plant science · 2024Article
- Retrospective evaluation of short-term forecast performance of ensemble sub-epidemic frameworks and other time-series models: The 2022-2023 mpox outbreak across multiple geographical scales, July 14medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- A reliable emergency logistics network for COVID-19 considering the uncertain time-varying demands.Transportation research. Part E, Logistics and transportation review · 2023Article
- Modeling the positive testing rate of COVID-19 in South Africa using a semi-parametric smoother for binomial data.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Communicable disease pandemic: a simulation model based on community transmission and social distancing.Soft computing · 2023Article
- How can environmental degradation and income disparities influence national health: an eye bird view on China's provinces.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic prediction in Shanghai under the "dynamic zero-COVID policy" using time-dependent SEAIQR model.Journal of biosafety and biosecurity · 2022Article
- Nonlinear time-series forecasts for decision support: short-term demand for ICU beds in Santiago, Chile, during the 2021 COVID-19 pandemic.International transactions in operational research : a journal of The International Federation of Operational Research Societies · 2022Article
- Artificial neural networks for prediction of COVID-19 in India by using backpropagation.Expert systems · 2022Article
- Analyzing and forecasting COVID-19 pandemic in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia using ARIMA and SIR models.Computational intelligence · 2022Article
- COVID-19 outbreak impact on health professionals: A survey on the Italian radiographer experience.Journal of medical imaging and radiation sciences · 2022Article
- Determining an effective short term COVID-19 prediction model in ASEAN countries.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Empirical Modeling of COVID-19 Evolution with High/Direct Impact on Public Health and Risk Assessment.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
24 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread within and outside of China, despite several social distancing measures implemented by the Chinese government. Limited epidemiological data are available, and recent changes in case definition and reporting further complicate our understanding of the impact of the epidemic, particularly in the epidemic's epicenter. Here we use previously validated phenomenological models to generate short-term forecasts of cumulative reported cases in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China. Using daily reported cumulative case data up until 13 February 2020 from the National Health Commission of China, we report 5- and 10-day ahead forecasts of cumulative case reports. Specifically, we generate forecasts using a generalized logistic growth model, the Richards growth model, and a sub-epidemic wave model, which have each been previously used to forecast outbreaks due to different infectious diseases. Forecasts from each of the models suggest the outbreaks may be nearing extinction in both Guangdong and Zhejiang; however, the sub-epidemic model predictions also include the potential for further sustained transmission, particularly in Zhejiang. Our 10-day forecasts across the three models predict an additional 65-81 cases (upper bounds: 169-507) in Guangdong and an additional 44-354 (upper bounds: 141-875) cases in Zhejiang by February 23, 2020. In the best-case scenario, current data suggest that transmission in both provinces is slowing down.
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