ArticleJournal of clinical medicine2020
Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China.
Article in Journal of clinical medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 110 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
110 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Predictive Models for Forecasting Public Health Scenarios: Practical Experiences Applied during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Pooled it
- Public health effects of travel-related policies on the COVID-19 pandemic: A mixed-methods systematic review.The Journal of infection · 2021Pooled it
- Racial disparities in COVID-19 pandemic cases, hospitalisations, and deaths: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of global health · 2021Pooled it
- International travel-related control measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2021Pooled it
- Evidence of the effectiveness of travel-related measures during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid systematic review.BMJ global health · 2021Pooled it
- Imaging and clinical features of patients with 2019 novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of medical virology · 2020Pooled it
- Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi · 2020Pooled it
- The Risk from Reopening International Travel During a Disease X Pandemic: A Case Study of SARS-CoV-2.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2026Article
- Effects of individual variation and seasonal vaccination on disease risks.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Flexible Bayesian inference on partially observed epidemics.Journal of complex networks · 2024Article
- Pathogen evolution, prevention/control strategy and clinical features of COVID-19: experiences from China.Frontiers of medicine · 2023Review
- The Impact of Comorbidities and Obesity on the Severity and Outcome of COVID-19 in Hospitalized Patients-A Retrospective Study in a Hungarian Hospital.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Observational
- A probabilistic epidemiological model for infectious diseases: The case of COVID-19 at global-level.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2023Article
- Article
- Socio-economic and environmental factors in the global spread of COVID-19 outbreak.Research in economics = Ricerche economiche · 2022Article
- What we can learn from the exported cases in detecting disease outbreaks - a case study of the COVID-19 epidemic.Annals of epidemiology · 2022Article
- Aspect based sentiment analysis using multi-criteria decision-making and deep learning under COVID-19 pandemic in India.CAAI Transactions on Intelligence Technology · 2022Article
- An Improved Genetic Algorithm for Location Allocation Problem with Grey Theory in Public Health Emergencies.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic by a two-side fractional-order compartmental model.ISA transactions · 2022Article
- Revisiting the standard for modeling the spread of infectious diseases.Scientific reports · 2022Article
50 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
We developed a computational tool to assess the risks of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside of China. We estimate the dependence of the risk of a major outbreak in a country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) the evolution of the cumulative number of cases in mainland China outside the closed areas; (ii) the connectivity of the destination country with China, including baseline travel frequencies, the effect of travel restrictions, and the efficacy of entry screening at destination; and (iii) the efficacy of control measures in the destination country (expressed by the local reproduction number R loc ). We found that in countries with low connectivity to China but with relatively high R loc , the most beneficial control measure to reduce the risk of outbreaks is a further reduction in their importation number either by entry screening or travel restrictions. Countries with high connectivity but low R loc benefit the most from policies that further reduce R loc . Countries in the middle should consider a combination of such policies. Risk assessments were illustrated for selected groups of countries from America, Asia, and Europe. We investigated how their risks depend on those parameters, and how the risk is increasing in time as the number of cases in China is growing.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.