ArticleEpidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)2020
Aim for Clinical Utility, Not Just Predictive Accuracy.
Article in Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Managing Pregnancies of Unknown Location With the M4 Prediction Model or the NICE Algorithm: A Randomised Controlled Trial With Cross-Sectional Diagnostic Accuracy Data.BJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology · 2025Trial
- Risk of seizure recurrence in people with single seizures and early epilepsy - Model development and external validation.Seizure · 2022Trial
- Impact of an ROX index-guided intubation strategy on mortality in patients receiving high-flow nasal cannula: a target trial emulation.Journal of intensive care · 2026Article
- Development of an LLM pipeline exceeding physician-documented cardiovascular risk scores under routine clinical conditions.European heart journal. Digital health · 2026Article
- Evaluation of clinical utility in emulated clinical trials.European journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Impact of an AI prognostic tool on clinician performance in colorectal liver metastases.NPJ digital medicine · 2026Article
- Use of the iPRISM webtool in a learning community to assess implementation context and fit of a novel clinical decision support tool for physical therapy triage in acute care hospitals.PM & R : the journal of injury, function, and rehabilitation · 2025Article
- Observational
- Article
- Design aspects for prognostic factor studies.BMJ open · 2025Review
- Development and Validation of PT-PENCIL: The Physical Therapy Frequency Clinical Decision Support Tool to Increase Hospital Discharge to Home.Physical therapy · 2025Article
- The origins of unpredictability in life outcome prediction tasks.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- A blood DNA methylation biomarker for predicting short-term risk of cardiovascular events.Clinical epigenetics · 2022Article
- Can Machine Learning from Real-World Data Support Drug Treatment Decisions? A Prediction Modeling Case for Direct Oral Anticoagulants.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2022Article
- Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator in Primary and Secondary Prevention of SCD-What We Still Don't Know.Journal of cardiovascular development and disease · 2022Review
- Expected clinical utility of automatable prediction models for improving palliative and end-of-life care outcomes: Toward routine decision analysis before implementation.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2021Article
- Using the Causal Inference Framework to Support Individualized Drug Treatment Decisions Based on Observational Healthcare Data.Clinical epidemiology · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The predictions from an accurate prognostic model can be of great interest to patients and clinicians. When predictions are reported to individuals, they may decide to take action to improve their health or they may simply be comforted by the knowledge. However, if there is a clearly defined space of actions in the clinical context, a formal decision rule based on the prediction has the potential to have a much broader impact. The use of a prediction-based decision rule should be formalized and preferably compared with the standard of care in a randomized trial to assess its clinical utility; however, evidence is needed to motivate such a trial. We outline how observational data can be used to propose a decision rule based on a prognostic prediction model. We then propose a framework for emulating a prediction driven trial to evaluate the clinical utility of a prediction-based decision rule in observational data. A split-sample structure is often feasible and useful to develop the prognostic model, define the decision rule, and evaluate its clinical utility. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B656.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.