Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32087820›Full record

ArticleLancet (London, England)2020

Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study.

Marius Gilbert, Giulia Pullano, Francesco Pinotti, Eugenio Valdano, Chiara Poletto, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Eric D'Ortenzio, Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Serge Paul Eholie, Mathias Altmann and 3 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Lancet (London, England), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 534 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
534citing papers in PubMed, 7 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

534 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  19. Comparative evaluation of behavioral epidemic models using COVID-19 data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
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474 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Marius GilbertSpatial Epidemiology Laboratory, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifiques, Brussels, Belgium.
Giulia PullanoINSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France; Sociology and Economics of Networks and Services Laboratory at Orange Experience Design Laboratory Chatillion, Paris, France.
Francesco PinottiINSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France.
Eugenio ValdanoCenter for Biomedical Modeling, The Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, LA, USA.
Chiara PolettoINSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France.
Pierre-Yves BoëlleINSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France.
Eric D'OrtenzioInfection, Antimicrobials, Modelling, Evolution, INSERM, Université de Paris, Paris, France; Bichat Claude Bernard Hospital, Assistance publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France.
Yazdan YazdanpanahInfection, Antimicrobials, Modelling, Evolution, INSERM, Université de Paris, Paris, France; Bichat Claude Bernard Hospital, Assistance publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France.
Serge Paul EholieService des Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Treichville, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire; Département de Dermatologie-Infectiologie, Unité de Formation et de Recherche des Sciences Médicales, Université Félix Houphouet-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.
Mathias AltmannIDLIC-Maladies Infectieuses Dans Les Pays à Ressources Limitées, INSERM U1219, Bordeaux, France; Bordeaux Population Health, University of Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France.
Bernardo GutierrezDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Moritz U G KraemerDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Computational Epidemiology Group, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Vittoria ColizzaINSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France. Electronic address: vittoria.colizza@inserm.fr.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has spread from China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission have already occurred in 12 countries after case importation. In Africa, Egypt has so far confirmed one case. The management and control of COVID-19 importations heavily rely on a country's health capacity. Here we evaluate the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of COVID-19.

methodsWe used data on the volume of air travel departing from airports in the infected provinces in China and directed to Africa to estimate the risk of importation per country. We determined the country's capacity to detect and respond to cases with two indicators: preparedness, using the WHO International Health Regulations Monitoring and Evaluation Framework; and vulnerability, using the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index. Countries were clustered according to the Chinese regions contributing most to their risk.

findingsCountries with the highest importation risk (ie, Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa) have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk (ie, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya) have variable capacity and high vulnerability. We identified three clusters of countries that share the same exposure to the risk originating from the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and the city of Beijing, respectively.

interpretationMany countries in Africa are stepping up their preparedness to detect and cope with COVID-19 importations. Resources, intensified surveillance, and capacity building should be urgently prioritised in countries with moderate risk that might be ill-prepared to detect imported cases and to limit onward transmission.

fundingEU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020, Agence Nationale de la Recherche.

Indexed as

Civil DefenseCoronavirus InfectionsHealth ResourcesModels, TheoreticalPneumonia, ViralPopulation SurveillanceVulnerable PopulationsAfricaChinaCOVID-19EpidemicsHealth PlanningHumansRisk AssessmentTravel

Identifiers

PMID32087820
PMCPMC7159277

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.