Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32087705›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2020

Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs.

Frank Götmark, Malte Andersson

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC public health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 81 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
81citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
45.9field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

81 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 222 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Determinants of children ever born among women in Somalia: a national survey study.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Modeling of Maternal Factors Affecting Child Ever Born in Punjab, Pakistan: Indication From Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (2017-2018).American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council · 2026
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

21 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Frank GötmarkDepartment of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Göteborg, Sweden. frank.gotmark@gu.se.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2604-3298
Malte AnderssonDepartment of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Göteborg, Sweden.
University of Gothenburg · SE

Funding

Global Challenges Foundation (Stockholm) Protocol 3/2017
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe world population is expected to increase greatly this century, aggravating current problems related to climate, health, food security, biodiversity, energy and other vital resources. Population growth depends strongly on total fertility rate (TFR), but the relative importance of factors that influence fertility needs more study.

methodsWe analyze recent levels of fertility in relation to five factors: education (mean school years for females), economy (Gross Domestic Product, GDP, per capita), religiosity, contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), and strength of family planning programs. We compare six global regions: E Europe, W Europe and related countries, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Arab States, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Asia. In total, 141 countries are included in the analysis. We estimate the strength of relationships between TFR and the five factors by correlation or regression and present the results graphically.

resultsIn decreasing order of strength, fertility (TFR) correlates negatively with education, CPR, and GDP per capita, and positively with religiosity. Europe deviates from other regions in several ways, e.g. TFR increases with education and decreases with religiosity in W Europe. TFR decreases with increasing strength of family planning programs in three regions, but only weakly so in a fourth, Sub-Saharan Africa (the two European regions lacked such programs). Most factors correlated with TFR are also correlated with each other. In particular, education correlates positively with GDP per capita but negatively with religiosity, which is also negatively related to contraception and GDP per capita.

conclusionsThese results help identify factors of likely importance for TFR in global regions and countries. More work is needed to establish causality and relative importance of the factors. Our novel quantitative analysis of TFR suggests that religiosity may counteract the ongoing decline of fertility in some regions and countries.

Indexed as

Africa South of the SaharaArab WorldAsiaBirth RateCaribbean RegionContraceptionEducational StatusEuropeFamily Planning ServicesFemaleGross Domestic ProductHumansLatin AmericaReligionDemographyEconomyEducationFamily planningHuman populationPopulation policyReligiositySchoolingSustainability

Identifiers

PMID32087705
PMCPMC7036237
OpenAlexW3012630157

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.