Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32077217›Full record

ArticleGlobal change biology2020

Climate-induced changes in the suitable habitat of cold-water corals and commercially important deep-sea fishes in the North Atlantic.

Telmo Morato, José-Manuel González-Irusta, Carlos Dominguez-Carrió, Chih-Lin Wei, Andrew Davies, Andrew K Sweetman, Gerald H Taranto, Lindsay Beazley, Ana García-Alegre, Anthony Grehan and 49 more

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Global change biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
32citing papers in PubMed
18.9field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

32 citing papers in PubMed, 215 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

59 authors at 20 institutions in 13 countries.

Telmo MoratoOkeanos Research Centre, Departamento de Oceanografia e Pesca, Universidade dos Açores, Horta, Portugal.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2393-4773
José-Manuel González-IrustaOkeanos Research Centre, Departamento de Oceanografia e Pesca, Universidade dos Açores, Horta, Portugal.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3948-604X
Carlos Dominguez-CarrióOkeanos Research Centre, Departamento de Oceanografia e Pesca, Universidade dos Açores, Horta, Portugal.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0025-9376
Chih-Lin WeiInstitute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Andrew DaviesDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2087-0885
Andrew K SweetmanMarine Benthic Ecology, Biogeochemistry and In situ Technology Research Group, The Lyell Centre for Earth and Marine Science and Technology, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK.
Gerald H TarantoOkeanos Research Centre, Departamento de Oceanografia e Pesca, Universidade dos Açores, Horta, Portugal.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7968-1982
Lindsay BeazleyFisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada.
Ana García-AlegreInstituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO), Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo, Vigo, Pontevedra, Spain.
Anthony GrehanEarth and Ocean Sciences, NUI Galway, Galway, Ireland.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7893-4717
Pascal LaffargueIFREMER, Centre Atlantique, Nantes, France.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2126-9773
Francisco Javier MurilloFisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada.
Mar SacauInstituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO), Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo, Vigo, Pontevedra, Spain.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6529-3110
Sandrine VazMARBEC, University of Montpellier, IFREMER, CNRS, IRD, Sète, France.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7365-8335
Ellen KenchingtonFisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada.
Sophie Arnaud-HaondMARBEC, University of Montpellier, IFREMER, CNRS, IRD, Sète, France.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5814-8452
Oisín CalleryEarth and Ocean Sciences, NUI Galway, Galway, Ireland.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3388-0951
Giovanni ChimientiDepartment of Biology, University of Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2581-3430
Erik CordesDepartment of Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6989-2348
Hronn EgilsdottirMarine and Freshwater Research Institute, Reykjavík, Iceland.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7732-1396
André FreiwaldMarine Research Department, Senckenberg am Meer, Wilhelmshaven, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2335-4042
Ryan GasbarroDepartment of Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1719-7132
Cristina Gutiérrez-ZárateOkeanos Research Centre, Departamento de Oceanografia e Pesca, Universidade dos Açores, Horta, Portugal.
Matthew GianniGianni Consultancy, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Kent GilkinsonNorthwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Ocean Canada, St. John's, NL, Canada.
Vonda E Wareham HayesNorthwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Ocean Canada, St. John's, NL, Canada.
Dierk HebbelnMARUM - Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5099-6115
Kevin HedgesFisheries and Oceans Canada, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2219-2360
Lea-Anne HenryChanging Oceans Group, School of GeoSciences, Grant Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5134-1102
David JohnsonSeascape Consultants Ltd, Romsey, UK.
Mariano Koen-AlonsoNorthwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Ocean Canada, St. John's, NL, Canada.
Cam LiretteFisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada.
Francesco MastrototaroDepartment of Biology, University of Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4890-2949
Lénaick MenotIFREMER, Centre de Bretagne, Plouzané, France.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8117-1607
Tina MolodtsovaP.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS, Moscow, Russia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7171-6952
Pablo Durán MuñozInstituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO), Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo, Vigo, Pontevedra, Spain.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9618-4224
Covadonga OrejasInstituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Baleares, Palma, Spain.
Maria Grazia PenninoInstituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO), Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo, Vigo, Pontevedra, Spain.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7577-2617
Patricia PuertaInstituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Baleares, Palma, Spain.
Stefán Á RagnarssonMarine and Freshwater Research Institute, Reykjavík, Iceland.
Berta Ramiro-SánchezChanging Oceans Group, School of GeoSciences, Grant Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Jake RiceFisheries and Ocean Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
Jesús RiveraInstituto Español de Oceanografía, Madrid, Spain.
J Murray RobertsChanging Oceans Group, School of GeoSciences, Grant Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1688-5133
Steve W RossCenter for Marine Science, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, Wilmington, NC, USA.
José L RuedaInstituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Málaga, Málaga, Spain.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4632-1523
Íris SampaioIMAR Instituto do Mar, Departamento de Oceanografia e Pesca, Universidade dos Açores, Horta, Portugal.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3305-7567
Paul SnelgroveOcean Sciences Centre, Memorial University, St. John's, NL, Canada.
David StirlingMarine Laboratory, Marine Scotland Science, Aberdeen, UK.
Margaret A TrebleFisheries and Oceans Canada, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.
Javier UrraInstituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Málaga, Málaga, Spain.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0255-7246
Johanne VadChanging Oceans Group, School of GeoSciences, Grant Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Dick van OevelenRoyal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Utrecht University, Yerseke, The Netherlands.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1740-5317
Les WatlingDepartment of Biology, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA.
Wojciech WalkuszFisheries and Oceans Canada, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.
Claudia WienbergMARUM - Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9870-5495
Mathieu WoillezIFREMER, Centre de Bretagne, Plouzané, France.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1032-2105
Lisa A LevinCenter for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation and Integrative Oceanography Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2858-8622
Marina Carreiro-SilvaOkeanos Research Centre, Departamento de Oceanografia e Pesca, Universidade dos Açores, Horta, Portugal.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6446-6342
Fisheries and Oceans Canada · CAInstituto Español de Oceanografía · ESUniversidade dos Açores · PTUniversity of Edinburgh · GBIfremer · FRCentre National de la Recherche Scientifique · FRCoNISMa · ITMarine and Freshwater Research Institute · ISOllscoil na Gaillimhe – University of Galway · IETemple University · USUniversity of Bremen · DEGGD Amsterdam · NLHeriot-Watt University · GBInstitute of Oceanology. PP Shirshov Russian Academy of Sciences · RUMarine Scotland · GBMemorial University of Newfoundland · CANational Taiwan Ocean University · TWScripps Institution of Oceanography · USSeascape Consultants (United Kingdom) · GBSenckenberg am Meer · DE

Funding

Fundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaNaumann FCT/UID/MAR/04292/2013Fundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaNaumann IF/01194/2013Fundación Séneca 20632/IV/18Global Ocean Biodiversity Initiative 16-IV-049H2020 Environment 678760H2020 Environment 679849Icelandic Research Fund 174552-052IFCT IF/01194/2013/CP1199/CT0002NSF OCE OCE-1829623PO2020 Acores-01-0145-FEDER-000056RF State Assignment 0149-2019-0009
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The deep sea plays a critical role in global climate regulation through uptake and storage of heat and carbon dioxide. However, this regulating service causes warming, acidification and deoxygenation of deep waters, leading to decreased food availability at the seafloor. These changes and their projections are likely to affect productivity, biodiversity and distributions of deep-sea fauna, thereby compromising key ecosystem services. Understanding how climate change can lead to shifts in deep-sea species distributions is critically important in developing management measures. We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold-water coral and commercially important deep-sea fish species under present-day (1951-2000) environmental conditions and to project changes under severe, high emissions future (2081-2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our models projected a decrease of 28%-100% in suitable habitat for cold-water corals and a shift in suitable habitat for deep-sea fishes of 2.0°-9.9° towards higher latitudes. The largest reductions in suitable habitat were projected for the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa and the octocoral Paragorgia arborea, with declines of at least 79% and 99% respectively. We projected the expansion of suitable habitat by 2100 only for the fishes Helicolenus dactylopterus and Sebastes mentella (20%-30%), mostly through northern latitudinal range expansion. Our results projected limited climate refugia locations in the North Atlantic by 2100 for scleractinian corals (30%-42% of present-day suitable habitat), even smaller refugia locations for the octocorals Acanella arbuscula and Acanthogorgia armata (6%-14%), and almost no refugia for P. arborea. Our results emphasize the need to understand how anticipated climate change will affect the distribution of deep-sea species including commercially important fishes and foundation species, and highlight the importance of identifying and preserving climate refugia for a range of area-based planning and management tools.

Indexed as

climate changecold-water coralsdeep-seafisheriesfisheshabitat suitability modellingoctocoralsscleractiniansspecies distribution modelsvulnerable marine ecosystems

Identifiers

PMID32077217
PMCPMC7154791
OpenAlexW3008670662

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.