ArticleJournal of clinical medicine2020
Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases.
Article in Journal of clinical medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 165 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
165 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Diagnostic accuracy of clinical signs and symptoms of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the different estimates in a different stage of the pandemic outbreak.Journal of global health · 2023Pooled it
- The Impact of COVID-19 on the Prevalence, Mortality, and Associated Risk Factors for Mortality in Patients with Hip Fractures: A Meta-Analysis.Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · 2023Pooled it
- Meta-analysis of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 serial intervals and the impact of parameter uncertainty on the coronavirus disease 2019 reproduction number.Statistical methods in medical research · 2022Pooled it
- Transmissibility and pathogenicity of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2: A systematic review and meta-analysis of secondary attack rate and asymptomatic infection.Journal of infection and public health · 2022Pooled it
- Assessment of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 at global level: A meta-analysis.Medicine · 2021Pooled it
- A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection fatality rates.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2020Pooled it
- China's practice to prevent and control COVID-19 in the context of large population movement.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2020Pooled it
- Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi · 2020Pooled it
- Spread and Impact of COVID-19 in China: A Systematic Review and Synthesis of Predictions From Transmission-Dynamic Models.Frontiers in medicine · 2020Pooled it
- Reproductive number of coronavirus: A systematic review and meta-analysis based on global level evidence.PloS one · 2020Pooled it
- Hesitancy Toward a COVID-19 Vaccine.EcoHealth · 2021Trial
- Social distancing in America: Understanding long-term adherence to COVID-19 mitigation recommendations.PloS one · 2021Trial
- Crisis-driven innovation in the Republic of Korea's in vitro diagnostics industry: a pandemic case study.Osong public health and research perspectives · 2026Article
- COVID-19 Pandemic Risk Assessment: Systematic Review.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2024Review
- Comorbidity-stratified estimates of 30-day mortality risk by age for unvaccinated men and women with COVID-19: a population-based cohort study.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Nitrogen dioxide as proxy indicator of air pollution from fossil fuel burning in New Delhi during lockdown phases of COVID-19 pandemic period: impact on weather as revealed by Sentinel-5 precursor (5p) spectrometer sensor.Environment, development and sustainability · 2023Article
- Coronavirus covid-19 detection by means of explainable deep learning.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- The incidence of psychosocial disturbances during the coronavirus disease-19 pandemic in an Iranian sample.Current psychology (New Brunswick, N.J.) · 2023Article
- Evaluation of viral concentration and extraction methods for SARS-CoV-2 recovery from wastewater using droplet digital and quantitative RT-PCR.Case studies in chemical and environmental engineering · 2022Article
- The Possible Impact of Nationwide Vaccination on Outcomes of the COVID-19 Epidemic in North Korea: A Modelling Study.Journal of Korean medical science · 2022Article
105 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The exported cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were confirmed outside China provide an opportunity to estimate the cumulative incidence and confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) in mainland China. Knowledge of the cCFR is critical to characterize the severity and understand the pandemic potential of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic. Using the exponential growth rate of the incidence, the present study statistically estimated the cCFR and the basic reproduction number-the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a naïve population. We modeled epidemic growth either from a single index case with illness onset on 8 December, 2019 (Scenario 1), or using the growth rate fitted along with the other parameters (Scenario 2) based on data from 20 exported cases reported by 24 January 2020. The cumulative incidence in China by 24 January was estimated at 6924 cases (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4885, 9211) and 19,289 cases (95% CI: 10,901, 30,158), respectively. The latest estimated values of the cCFR were 5.3% (95% CI: 3.5%, 7.5%) for Scenario 1 and 8.4% (95% CI: 5.3%, 12.3%) for Scenario 2. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 2.1 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.2) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7, 3.7) for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Based on these results, we argued that the current COVID-19 epidemic has a substantial potential for causing a pandemic. The proposed approach provides insights in early risk assessment using publicly available data.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.