Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32069897›Full record

ArticlePathogens (Basel, Switzerland)2020

Dynamics of Classical Swine Fever Spread in Wild Boar in 2018-2019, Japan.

Norikazu Isoda, Kairi Baba, Satoshi Ito, Mitsugi Ito, Yoshihiro Sakoda, Kohei Makita

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed.

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  5. Exploring the Genetic Basis of Wild Boar (Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Norikazu IsodaUnit of Risk Analysis and Management, Research Center for Zoonosis Control, Hokkaido University, Kita 20, Nishi 10, Kita-Ku, Sapporo 001-0020, Japan.
Kairi BabaVeterinary Epidemiology Unit, School of Veterinary Medicine, Rakuno Gakuen University, 582, Bunkyodai Midorimachi, Ebetsu 069-8501, Japan.
Satoshi ItoUnit of Risk Analysis and Management, Research Center for Zoonosis Control, Hokkaido University, Kita 20, Nishi 10, Kita-Ku, Sapporo 001-0020, Japan.
Mitsugi ItoAkabane Animal Clinic, Co. Ltd., 55 Ishizoe, Akabane-Cho, Tahara 441-3502, Japan.
Yoshihiro SakodaGlobal Station for Zoonosis Control, Global Institute for Collaborative Research and Education (GI-CoRE), Hokkaido University, Sapporo 001-0020, Japan.ORCID 0000-0001-7021-1688
Kohei MakitaVeterinary Epidemiology Unit, School of Veterinary Medicine, Rakuno Gakuen University, 582, Bunkyodai Midorimachi, Ebetsu 069-8501, Japan.ORCID 0000-0002-0181-0246

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The prolongation of the classic swine fever (CSF) outbreak in Japan in 2018 was highly associated with the persistence and widespread of the CSF virus (CSFV) in the wild boar population. To investigate the dynamics of the CSF outbreak in wild boar, spatiotemporal analyses were performed. The positive rate of CSFV in wild boar fluctuated dramatically from March to June 2019, but finally stabilized at approximately 10%. The Euclidean distance from the initial CSF notified farm to the farthest infected wild boar of the day constantly increased over time since the initial outbreak except in the cases reported from Gunma and Saitama prefectures. The two-month-period prevalence, estimated using integrated nested Laplace approximation, reached >80% in half of the infected areas in March-April 2019. The area affected continued to expand despite the period prevalence decreasing up to October 2019. A large difference in the shapes of standard deviational ellipses and in the location of their centroids when including or excluding cases in Gunma and Saitama prefectures indicates that infections there were unlikely to have been caused simply by wild boar activities, and anthropogenic factors were likely involved. The emergence of concurrent space-time clusters in these areas after July 2019 indicated that CSF outbreaks were scattered by this point in time. The results of this epidemiological analysis help explain the dynamics of the spread of CSF and will aid in the implementation of control measures, including bait vaccination.

Indexed as

classical swine feverJapanspace–time analysiswild boar

Identifiers

PMID32069897
PMCPMC7169391

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.