ArticleNature communications2020
Systematic selection between age and household structure for models aimed at emerging epidemic predictions.
Article in Nature communications, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
- Role-specific household contact patterns in urban and rural China: Implications for influenza household transmission.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- The epidemiological impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of implementing household contact investigation with tuberculosis preventive treatment in Nepal: a model-based analysis.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
- To trace or not to trace: analytical insights from network-based contact-tracing models.Journal of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Multitype SIR epidemics among a population partitioned into households with proportionate global mixing.Journal of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Targeted epidemic mitigation through age-specific dose-response recovery modeling.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Model-based estimates of age-structured SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology in households.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Bayesian workflow for time-varying transmission in stratified compartmental infectious disease transmission models.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Infectious Disease in the Workplace: Quantifying Uncertainty in Transmission.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Population age and household structures shape transmission dynamics of emerging infectious diseases: a longitudinal microsimulation approach.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Using a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain model to examine alternative timing and duration of the COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait: what can be done now?Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2022Article
- Estimating the global reduction in transmission and rise in detection capacity of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in early 2020.Epidemics · 2021Article
- Modeling the effect of lockdown timing as a COVID-19 control measure in countries with differing social contacts.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Household crowding hampers mitigating the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2021Article
- Differences in social activity increase efficiency of contact tracing.The European physical journal. B · 2021Article
- A statistical theory of the strength of epidemics: an application to the Italian COVID-19 case.Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2020Article
- Dynamic interplay between social distancing duration and intensity in reducing COVID-19 US hospitalizations: A "law of diminishing returns".Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.) · 2020Article
- Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: A modeling study in Hubei, China, and six regions in Europe.PLoS medicine · 2020Article
- The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study.Wellcome open research · 2020Article
- Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2020Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
Numerous epidemic models have been developed to capture aspects of human contact patterns, making model selection challenging when they fit (often-scarce) early epidemic data equally well but differ in predictions. Here we consider the invasion of a novel directly transmissible infection and perform an extensive, systematic and transparent comparison of models with explicit age and/or household structure, to determine the accuracy loss in predictions in the absence of interventions when ignoring either or both social components. We conclude that, with heterogeneous and assortative contact patterns relevant to respiratory infections, the model's age stratification is crucial for accurate predictions. Conversely, the household structure is only needed if transmission is highly concentrated in households, as suggested by an empirical but robust rule of thumb based on household secondary attack rate. This work serves as a template to guide the simplicity/accuracy trade-off in designing models aimed at initial, rapid assessment of potential epidemic severity.
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