ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2020
A realistic two-strain model for MERS-CoV infection uncovers the high risk for epidemic propagation.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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15 citing papers in PubMed, 35 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Mathematical Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission between Minks and Humans Considering New Variants and Mink Culling.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- COVID-19 outbreak: a predictive mathematical study incorporating shedding effect.Journal of applied mathematics & computing · 2023Article
- Effective Lockdown and Role of Hospital-Based COVID-19 Transmission in Some Indian States: An Outbreak Risk Analysis.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2022Article
- Short-term predictions and prevention strategies for COVID-19: A model-based study.Applied mathematics and computation · 2021Article
- A modifiedResults in physics · 2021Article
- Modeling the effects of prosocial awareness on COVID-19 dynamics: Case studies on Colombia and India.Nonlinear dynamics · 2021Article
- Effect of meteorological factors on COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh.Environment, development and sustainability · 2021Article
- The emerging role of microRNAs in the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.International immunopharmacology · 2021Review
- Within Host Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Humans: Modeling Immune Responses and Antiviral Treatments.SN computer science · 2021Article
- Stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic.Advances in difference equations · 2021Article
- Association of COVID-19 pandemic with meteorological parameters over Singapore.The Science of the total environment · 2020Article
- Assessment of lockdown effect in some states and overall India: A predictive mathematical study on COVID-19 outbreak.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2020Article
- A correlation study between meteorological parameters and COVID-19 pandemic in Mumbai, India.Diabetes & metabolic syndromeArticle
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4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) causes severe acute respiratory illness with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 35,5%. The highest number of MERS-CoV cases are from Saudi-Arabia, the major worldwide hotspot for this disease. In the absence of neither effective treatment nor a ready-to-use vaccine and with yet an incomplete understanding of its epidemiological cycle, prevention and containment measures can be derived from mathematical models of disease epidemiology. We constructed 2-strain models to predict past outbreaks in the interval 2012-2016 and derive key epidemiological information for Macca, Madina and Riyadh. We approached variability in infection through three different disease incidence functions capturing social behavior in response to an epidemic (e.g. Bilinear, BL; Non-monotone, NM; and Saturated, SAT models). The best model combination successfully anticipated the total number of MERS-CoV clinical cases for the 2015-2016 season and accurately predicted both the number of cases at the peak of seasonal incidence and the overall shape of the epidemic cycle. The evolution in the basic reproduction number (R0) warns that MERS-CoV may easily take an epidemic form. The best model correctly captures this feature, indicating a high epidemic risk (1≤R0≤2,5) in Riyadh and Macca and confirming the alleged co-circulation of more than one strain. Accurate predictions of the future MERS-CoV peak week, as well as the number of cases at the peak are now possible. These results indicate public health agencies should be aware that measures for strict containment are urgently needed before new epidemics take off in the region.
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