CT-based deep learning model to differentiate invasive pulmonary adenocarcinomas appearing as subsolid nodules among surgical candidates: comparison of the diagnostic performance with a size-based logistic model and radiologists.

objectivesTo evaluate the deep learning models for differentiating invasive pulmonary adenocarcinomas (IACs) among subsolid nodules (SSNs) considered for resection in a retrospective diagnostic cohort in comparison with a size-based logistic model and expert radiologists.

methodsThis study included 525 patients (309 women; median, 62 years) to develop models, and an independent cohort of 101 patients (57 women; median, 66 years) was used for validation. A size-based logistic model and deep learning models using 2.5-dimension (2.5D) and three-dimension (3D) CT images were developed to discriminate IAC from less invasive pathologies. Overall performance, discrimination, and calibration were assessed. Diagnostic performances of the three thoracic radiologists were compared with those of the deep learning model.

resultsThe overall performances of the deep learning models (Brier score, 0.122 for the 2.5D DenseNet and 0.121 for the 3D DenseNet) were superior to those of the size-based logistic model (Brier score, 0.198). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the 2.5D DenseNet (0.921) was significantly higher than that of the 3D DenseNet (0.835; p = 0.037) and the size-based logistic model (0.836; p = 0.009). At equally high sensitivities of 90%, the 2.5D DenseNet showed significantly higher specificity (88.2%; all p < 0.05) and positive predictive value (97.4%; all p < 0.05) than other models. Model calibration was poor for all models (all p < 0.05). The 2.5D DenseNet had a comparable performance with the radiologists (AUC, 0.848-0.910).

conclusionThe 2.5D DenseNet model could be used as a highly sensitive and specific diagnostic tool to differentiate IACs among SSNs for surgical candidates. KEY POINTS: • The deep learning model developed using 2.5D DenseNet showed higher overall performance and discrimination than the size-based logistic model for the differentiation of invasive adenocarcinomas among subsolid nodules for surgical candidates. • The 2.5D DenseNet demonstrated a thoracic radiologist-level diagnostic performance and had higher specificity (88.2%) at equal sensitivities (90%) than the size-based logistic model (specificity, 52.9%). • The 2.5D DenseNet could be used to reduce potential overtreatment for the indolent subsolid nodules or to select candidates for sublobar resection instead of the standard lobectomy.