ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
Incubation periods impact the spatial predictability of cholera and Ebola outbreaks in Sierra Leone.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
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16 citing papers in PubMed.
- Understanding cholera dynamics in African countries with persistent outbreaks: a mathematical modeling approach.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Building climate-resilient health systems in Sierra Leone: addressing the dual burden of infectious and climate-related diseases.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2025Article
- EpiFusion: Joint inference of the effective reproduction number by integrating phylodynamic and epidemiological modelling with particle filtering.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Tobler's law and wavefront patterns in the spatial spread of COVID-19 across Europe during the Delta and Omicron waves.Scandinavian journal of public health · 2023Article
- Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Cholera past and future in Nigeria: Are the Global Task Force on Cholera Control's 2030 targets achievable?PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Mathematical Models for Cholera Dynamics-A Review.Microorganisms · 2022Review
- Connecting the dots: understanding how human mobility shapes TB epidemics.Trends in microbiology · 2022Review
- Fundamental limits on inferring epidemic resurgence in real time using effective reproduction numbers.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Optimal strategies to protect a sub-population at risk due to an established epidemic.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- How lessons learned from the 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome outbreak affected the response to coronavirus disease 2019 in the Republic of Korea.The Korean journal of internal medicine · 2021Review
- Article
- Early detection of cholera epidemics to support control in fragile states: estimation of delays and potential epidemic sizes.BMC medicine · 2020Article
- Risk of Secondary Infection Waves of COVID-19 in an Insular Region: The Case of the Balearic Islands, Spain.Frontiers in medicine · 2020Article
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8 authors.
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Abstract
Forecasting the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases during an outbreak is an important component of epidemic response. However, it remains challenging both methodologically and with respect to data requirements, as disease spread is influenced by numerous factors, including the pathogen's underlying transmission parameters and epidemiological dynamics, social networks and population connectivity, and environmental conditions. Here, using data from Sierra Leone, we analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of recent cholera and Ebola outbreaks and compare and contrast the spread of these two pathogens in the same population. We develop a simulation model of the spatial spread of an epidemic in order to examine the impact of a pathogen's incubation period on the dynamics of spread and the predictability of outbreaks. We find that differences in the incubation period alone can determine the limits of predictability for diseases with different natural history, both empirically and in our simulations. Our results show that diseases with longer incubation periods, such as Ebola, where infected individuals can travel farther before becoming infectious, result in more long-distance sparking events and less predictable disease trajectories, as compared to the more predictable wave-like spread of diseases with shorter incubation periods, such as cholera.
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