ArticleJournal of clinical medicine2020
Novel Coronavirus Outbreak in Wuhan, China, 2020: Intense Surveillance Is Vital for Preventing Sustained Transmission in New Locations.
Article in Journal of clinical medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 87 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
87 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Meta-analysis and comprehensive study of coronavirus outbreaks: SARS, MERS and COVID-19.Journal of infection and public health · 2021Pooled it
- Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2020Pooled it
- Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Epidemiology and infection · 2020Pooled it
- Effects of individual variation and seasonal vaccination on disease risks.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Reducing transmission in multiple settings is required to eliminate the risk of major Ebola outbreaks: a mathematical modelling study.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Quantifying infectious disease epidemic risks: A practical approach for seasonal pathogens.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Development and validation of cost-effective SYBR Green-based RT-qPCR and its evaluation in a sample pooling strategy for detecting SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Indonesian setting.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a primary school setting with and without public health measures using real-world contact data: A modelling study.Journal of global health · 2022Article
- Lung ultrasonography findings of coronavirus disease 2019 patients: Comparison between primary and secondary regions of China.Immunity, inflammation and disease · 2022Article
- Estimation of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG titre among blood donors in Ranchi.Journal of family medicine and primary care · 2022Article
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- Review of concerned SARS-CoV-2 variants like Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Omicron (B.1.1.529), as well as novel methods for reducing and inactivating SARS-CoV-2 mutants in wastewater treatment facilities.Journal of hazardous materials advances · 2022Review
- ADOPT: automatic deep learning and optimization-based approach for detection of novel coronavirus COVID-19 disease using X-ray images.Journal of biomolecular structure & dynamics · 2022Article
- Dispositional causes of burnout, satisfaction, and performance through the fear of COVID-19 during times of pandemic.Applied psychology = Psychologie appliquee · 2022Article
- Possible role of pannexin 1 channels and purinergic receptors in the pathogenesis and mechanism of action of SARS-CoV-2 and therapeutic potential of targeting them in COVID-19.Life sciences · 2022Review
- Depression, anxiety, and suicidal ideation in nurses with and without symptoms of secondary traumatic stress during the COVID-19 outbreak.Archives of psychiatric nursing · 2022Article
- Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Estimating local outbreak risks and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in age-structured populations: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- Article
- Comparison of epidemiological characteristics and transmissibility of different strains of COVID-19 based on the incidence data of all local outbreaks in China as of March 1, 2022.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
27 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
1 author.
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Abstract
The outbreak of pneumonia originating in Wuhan, China, has generated 24,500 confirmed cases, including 492 deaths, as of 5 February 2020. The virus (2019-nCoV) has spread elsewhere in China and to 24 countries, including South Korea, Thailand, Japan and USA. Fortunately, there has only been limited human-to-human transmission outside of China. Here, we assess the risk of sustained transmission whenever the coronavirus arrives in other countries. Data describing the times from symptom onset to hospitalisation for 47 patients infected early in the current outbreak are used to generate an estimate for the probability that an imported case is followed by sustained human-to-human transmission. Under the assumptions that the imported case is representative of the patients in China, and that the 2019-nCoV is similarly transmissible to the SARS coronavirus, the probability that an imported case is followed by sustained human-to-human transmission is 0.41 (credible interval [0.27, 0.55]). However, if the mean time from symptom onset to hospitalisation can be halved by intense surveillance, then the probability that an imported case leads to sustained transmission is only 0.012 (credible interval [0, 0.099]). This emphasises the importance of current surveillance efforts in countries around the world, to ensure that the ongoing outbreak will not become a global pandemic.
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