Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32048317›Full record

ArticleJournal of gastroenterology and hepatology2020

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden: Australia, 2019-2030.

Leon A Adams, Stuart K Roberts, Simone I Strasser, Suzanne E Mahady, Elizabeth Powell, Chris Estes, Homie Razavi, Jacob George

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 58 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
58citing papers in PubMed, 7 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

58 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Guideline
  2. A Markov Model Unveiling the Impact of Resmetirom on the Natural History of MASLD Patients: A Sistematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2025
    Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Pooled it
  6. Pooled it
  7. Pooled it
  8. Trial
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Targeting the LPI/GPR55 Axis in MAFLD and MASH: Novel Insights, Therapeutic Strategies and Future Directions.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2026
    Review
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Leon A AdamsMedical School, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
Stuart K RobertsDepartment of Gastroenterology, The Alfred, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9015-7997
Simone I StrasserAW Morrow Gastroenterology and Liver Centre, Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Suzanne E MahadySchool of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Elizabeth PowellDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Chris EstesCenter for Disease Analysis, Lafayette, Colorado, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2367-6535
Homie RazaviCenter for Disease Analysis, Lafayette, Colorado, USA.
Jacob GeorgeSchool of Medicine, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

Funding

Gilead Sciences
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

aimNonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030.

methodsA model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long-term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer.

resultsPrevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000-6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000-7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100-3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100-6100) deaths in 2030.

conclusionsRestraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge DistributionAustraliaChildChild, PreschoolDiabetes MellitusFemaleHumansInfantLiver FailureLiver NeoplasmsLiver TransplantationFatty liverHepatocellular carcinomaLiver cirrhosisLiver neoplasmsMetabolic syndromeNonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Identifiers

PMID32048317
PMCPMC7540570

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.