Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32047039›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020

Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica.

Chris S M Turney, Christopher J Fogwill, Nicholas R Golledge, Nicholas P McKay, Erik van Sebille, Richard T Jones, David Etheridge, Mauro Rubino, David P Thornton, Siwan M Davies and 22 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed.

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  7. Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets.Communications earth & environment · 2025
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

32 authors.

Chris S M TurneyPalaeontology, Geobiology and Earth Archives Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Kensington NSW 2033, Australia; c.turney@unsw.edu.au.ORCID 0000-0001-6733-0993
Christopher J FogwillPalaeontology, Geobiology and Earth Archives Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Kensington NSW 2033, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-6471-1106
Nicholas R GolledgeAntarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6140, New Zealand.ORCID 0000-0001-7676-8970
Nicholas P McKaySchool of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011.
Erik van SebilleGrantham Institute, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom.
Richard T JonesDepartment of Geography, Exeter University, Devon EX4 4RJ, United Kingdom.
David EtheridgeClimate Science Centre, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Ocean and Atmosphere, Aspendale, VIC 3195 Australia.
Mauro RubinoSchool of Geography, Geology and the Environment, Keele University, Staffordshire ST5 5BG, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-8721-4508
David P ThorntonClimate Science Centre, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Ocean and Atmosphere, Aspendale, VIC 3195 Australia.
Siwan M DaviesDepartment of Geography, Swansea University, Swansea SA2 8PP, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-0999-7233
Christopher Bronk RamseyResearch Laboratory for Archaeology and the History of Art, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TG, United Kingdom.
Zoë A ThomasPalaeontology, Geobiology and Earth Archives Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Kensington NSW 2033, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-2323-4366
Michael I BirdCentre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD 4870, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-1801-8703
Niels C MunksgaardAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD 4870, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-4906-1544
Mika KohnoDepartment of Geochemistry, Geoscience Center, University of Göttingen, 37077 Göttingen, Germany.
John WoodwardDepartment of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Engineering and Environment, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, United Kingdom.
Kate WinterDepartment of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Engineering and Environment, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, United Kingdom.
Laura S WeyrichAustralian Centre for Ancient DNA, University of Adelaide, Adelaide SA 5005, Australia.
Camilla M RootesDepartment of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S3 7ND, United Kingdom.
Helen MillmanPalaeontology, Geobiology and Earth Archives Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Kensington NSW 2033, Australia.
Paul G AlbertResearch Laboratory for Archaeology and the History of Art, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TG, United Kingdom.
Andres RiveraDepartamento de Geografia, Universidad de Chile, 8331051 Santiago, Chile.
Tas van OmmenDepartment of the Environment and Energy, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, TAS 7050, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-2463-1718
Mark CurranDepartment of the Environment and Energy, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, TAS 7050, Australia.
Andrew MoyDepartment of the Environment and Energy, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, TAS 7050, Australia.
Stefan RahmstorfEarth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
Kenji KawamuraResearch Organizations of Information and Systems, National Institute of Polar Research, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8518, Japan.
Claus-Dieter HillenbrandPalaeo Environments, Ice Sheets and Climate Change, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge CB3 0ET, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-0240-7317
Michael E WeberSteinmann Institute, University of Bonn, 53115 Bonn, Germany.
Christina J ManningDepartment of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway University of London, Surrey TW20 OEX, United Kingdom.
Jennifer YoungAustralian Centre for Ancient DNA, University of Adelaide, Adelaide SA 5005, Australia.
Alan CooperSouth Australian Museum, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The future response of the Antarctic ice sheet to rising temperatures remains highly uncertain. A useful period for assessing the sensitivity of Antarctica to warming is the Last Interglacial (LIG) (129 to 116 ky), which experienced warmer polar temperatures and higher global mean sea level (GMSL) (+6 to 9 m) relative to present day. LIG sea level cannot be fully explained by Greenland Ice Sheet melt (∼2 m), ocean thermal expansion, and melting mountain glaciers (∼1 m), suggesting substantial Antarctic mass loss was initiated by warming of Southern Ocean waters, resulting from a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in response to North Atlantic surface freshening. Here, we report a blue-ice record of ice sheet and environmental change from the Weddell Sea Embayment at the periphery of the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), which is underlain by major methane hydrate reserves. Constrained by a widespread volcanic horizon and supported by ancient microbial DNA analyses, we provide evidence for substantial mass loss across the Weddell Sea Embayment during the LIG, most likely driven by ocean warming and associated with destabilization of subglacial hydrates. Ice sheet modeling supports this interpretation and suggests that millennial-scale warming of the Southern Ocean could have triggered a multimeter rise in global sea levels. Our data indicate that Antarctica is highly vulnerable to projected increases in ocean temperatures and may drive ice-climate feedbacks that further amplify warming.

Indexed as

Antarctic ice sheetsmarine ice sheet instability (MISI)paleoclimatologypolar amplificationtipping element

Identifiers

PMID32047039
PMCPMC7049167

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.