ArticleJournal of clinical medicine2020
Estimation of the Transmission Risk of the 2019-nCoV and Its Implication for Public Health Interventions.
Article in Journal of clinical medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 578 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
578 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Data-driven strategies for model-informed decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.BMJ open · 2026Pooled it
- Prevalence and related factors of child posttraumatic stress disorder during COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review and meta-analysis.European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists · 2022Pooled it
- Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks in China: a four-year retrospective analysis using extended SEIR models.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Mechanistic Understanding of Pandemic Dynamics: A Multiscale Algorithmic Framework.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- A semi-mechanistic modeling strategy for infectious diseases forecasting: Error correction and probabilistic prediction.Biosafety and health · 2026Article
- A spatiotemporal transmission simulator for respiratory infectious diseases and its application to COVID-19.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Public health interventions for developing resilience to contagious diseases: a system dynamics approach.Health care management science · 2025Article
- Talk2Biomodels: AI agent-based open-source LLM initiative for kinetic biological models.BMC bioinformatics · 2025Article
- A history-dependent approach for accurate initial condition estimation in epidemic models.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Perceived stress, burnout and resilience among ambulance driver serving in Chhattisgarh during the Covid-19 pandemic.Journal of family medicine and primary care · 2025Article
- Systematic Comparison of Different Compartmental Models for Predicting COVID-19 Progression.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Optimizing quarantine in pandemic control: a multi-stage SEIQR modeling approach to COVID-19 transmission dynamics.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Role of limited medical resources in an epidemic model with media report and general birth rate.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Modeling-based design of adaptive control strategy for the effective preparation of 'Disease X'.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2025Article
- Is it Curbing-spread of SARS-CoV-2 Variants by Considering Non-linear Predictive Control?Biomedical engineering and computational biology · 2025Article
- Subject Modeling-Based Analysis of the Evolution and Intervention Strategies of Major Emerging Infectious Disease Events.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2025Article
- Modeling outbreaks of COVID-19 in China: The impact of vaccination and other control measures on curbing the epidemic.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Article
- On optimal control at the onset of a new viral outbreak.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- A vaccination-based COVID-19 model: Analysis and prediction using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Managing spatio-temporal heterogeneity of susceptibles by embedding it into an homogeneous model: A mechanistic and deep learning study.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
518 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Since the emergence of the first cases in Wuhan, China, the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection has been quickly spreading out to other provinces and neighboring countries. Estimation of the basic reproduction number by means of mathematical modeling can be helpful for determining the potential and severity of an outbreak and providing critical information for identifying the type of disease interventions and intensity. A deterministic compartmental model was devised based on the clinical progression of the disease, epidemiological status of the individuals, and intervention measures. The estimations based on likelihood and model analysis show that the control reproduction number may be as high as 6.47 (95% CI 5.71-7.23). Sensitivity analyses show that interventions, such as intensive contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation, can effectively reduce the control reproduction number and transmission risk, with the effect of travel restriction adopted by Wuhan on 2019-nCoV infection in Beijing being almost equivalent to increasing quarantine by a 100 thousand baseline value. It is essential to assess how the expensive, resource-intensive measures implemented by the Chinese authorities can contribute to the prevention and control of the 2019-nCoV infection, and how long they should be maintained. Under the most restrictive measures, the outbreak is expected to peak within two weeks (since 23 January 2020) with a significant low peak value. With travel restriction (no imported exposed individuals to Beijing), the number of infected individuals in seven days will decrease by 91.14% in Beijing, compared with the scenario of no travel restriction.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.