ArticleAddiction (Abingdon, England)2020
Evaluating the causal impact of individual alcohol licensing decisions on local health and crime using natural experiments with synthetic controls.
Article in Addiction (Abingdon, England), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 31 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review of interventions that impact alcohol and other drug-related harms in licensed entertainment settings and outdoor music festivals.Harm reduction journal · 2024Pooled it
- Alcohol-Related Presentations to Emergency Departments on Days with Holidays, Social, and Sporting Events: An Integrative Literature Review.Prehospital and disaster medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Risk of bicycle collisions and 'safety in numbers': a natural experiment using the local introduction of e-scooters in England.Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention · 2026Article
- The relationship between alcohol consumption, social distancing, and crime rates: insights from the COVID-19 pandemic.Journal of global health · 2026Article
- Using natural experiments to evaluate population health and health system interventions: new framework for producers and users of evidence.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2025Article
- Evaluating the impact of local alcohol licensing decisions on outcomes for the community: a systematic review.BMJ public health · 2024Article
- "It's like a safety net for when things go wrong": key stakeholder and program user perspectives on a peer-led safe space program in Sydney, Australia.Harm reduction journal · 2023Article
- Impact of public health team engagement in alcohol licensing on health and crime outcomes in England and Scotland: A comparative timeseries study between 2012 and 2019.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2022Article
- Associations of cannabis retail outlet availability and neighborhood disadvantage with cannabis use and related risk factors among young adults in Washington State.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2022Article
- How can communities influence alcohol licensing at a local level? Licensing officers' perspectives of the barriers and facilitators to sustaining engagement in a volunteer-led alcohol harm reduction approach.The International journal on drug policy · 2021Article
- Evaluating the causal impact of individual alcohol licensing decisions on local health and crime using natural experiments with synthetic controls.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
16 authors at 6 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
aimsGiven the costs of alcohol to society, it is important to evaluate whether local alcohol licensing decisions can mitigate the effects of alcohol misuse. Robust natural experiment evaluations of the impact of individual licensing decisions could potentially inform and improve local decision-making. We aimed to assess whether alcohol licensing decisions could be evaluated at small spatial scale by using a causal inference framework.
designThree natural experiments. SETTING AND
participantsThree English local areas of 1000-15 000 people each. INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR: The case study interventions were (i) the closure of a nightclub following reviews; (ii) closure of a restaurant/nightclub following reviews and (iii) implementation of new local licensing guidance (LLG). Trends in outcomes were compared with synthetic counterfactuals created using Bayesian structural time-series. MEASUREMENTS: Time-series data were obtained on emergency department admissions, ambulance call-outs and alcohol-related crime at the Lower or Middle Super Output geographical aggregation level.
findingsClosure of the nightclub led to temporary 4-month reductions in antisocial behaviour (-18%; 95% credible interval - 37%, -4%), with no change in other outcomes. Closure of the restaurant/nightclub did not lead to measurable changes in outcomes. The new licensing guidance led to small reductions in drunk and disorderly behaviour (nine of a predicted 21 events averted), and the unplanned end of the LLG coincided with an increase in domestic violence of two incidents per month.
conclusionsThe impact of local alcohol policy, even at the level of individual premises, can be evaluated using a causal inference framework. Local government actions such as closure or restriction of alcohol venues and alcohol licensing may have a positive impact on health and crime in the immediate surrounding area.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.