ArticleBMJ open2020
Introducing pre-exposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV acquisition among men who have sex with men in Sweden: insights from a mathematical pair formation model.
Article in BMJ open, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Prospects of HIV elimination among men who have sex with men: A systematic review of modeling studies.PLoS computational biology · 2026Pooled it
- Evolving landscape of economic evaluations of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis and pre-exposure prophylaxis implementation strategies: a systematic review.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2025Pooled it
- A Review of Network Models for HIV Spread.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2025Pooled it
- Low clinical impact of HIV drug resistance mutations in oral pre-exposure prophylaxis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.AIDS research and therapy · 2024Pooled it
- Chemsex and sexual risk behavior among MSM on PrEP in Stockholm, Sweden.Drug and alcohol dependence reports · 2025Article
- Switching From Dual to Monotherapy for Gonorrhea is Associated With a Halving of Gonococcal Resistance to Azithromycin-A Modelling Study of MSM in Belgium.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Estimating Partnership Duration among MSM in Belgium-A Modeling Study.Infectious disease reports · 2024Article
- Rethinking Screening Intensity in Terms of Reducing Prevalence or Increasing Selection Pressure for the Emergence of Resistant Gonorrhea: A Modeling Study of Men Who Have Sex With Men in Belgium.Open forum infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Non-selective distribution of infectious disease prevention may outperform risk-based targeting.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Article
- Review
- How perceived Australian sexual norms shape sexual practices of East Asian and sub-Saharan African international students in Sydney.BMC public health · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesSince 2017, the Public Health Agency of Sweden recommends that pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV should be offered to high-risk individuals, in particular to men who have sex with men (MSM). The objective of this study is to develop a mathematical model investigating the effect of introducing PrEP to MSM in Sweden.
designA pair formation model, including steady and casual sex partners, is developed to study the impact of introducing PrEP. Two groups are included in the model: sexually high active MSM and sexually low active MSM. Three mixing assumptions between the groups are considered.
settingA gay-friendly MSM HIV/sexually transmitted infection testing clinic in Stockholm, Sweden. This clinic started offering PrEP to MSM in October 2018.
participantsThe model is calibrated according to detailed sexual behaviour data gathered in 2015 among 403 MSM.
resultsBy targeting sexually high active MSM, a PrEP coverage of 3.5% of the MSM population (10% of all high actives) would result in the long-term HIV prevalence to drop considerably (close to 0%). While targeting only low actives would require a PrEP coverage of 35% for a similar reduction. The main effect of PrEP is the reduced susceptibility, whereas the increased HIV testing rate (every third month) among PrEP users plays a lesser role.
conclusionsTo create a multifaceted picture of the effects of interventions against HIV, we need models that include the different stages of HIV infection and real-world data on detailed sexual behaviour to calibrate the mathematical models. Our findings conclude that targeting HIV high-risk individuals, within HIV risk populations such as MSM, with PrEP programmes could greatly decrease the long-term HIV prevalence in Sweden. Therefore, risk stratification of individuals is of importance in PrEP implementation programmes, to ensure optimising the effect and cost-effectiveness of such programmes.
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