Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32024089›Full record

ArticleJournal of clinical medicine2020

Estimating the Unreported Number of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cases in China in the First Half of January 2020: A Data-Driven Modelling Analysis of the Early Outbreak.

Shi Zhao, Salihu S Musa, Qianying Lin, Jinjun Ran, Guangpu Yang, Weiming Wang, Yijun Lou, Lin Yang, Daozhou Gao, Daihai He and 1 more

Registry-linked trialOpen access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of clinical medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04377464 (COVID-19 - Quality of Life After Infection), which is not on this map. Cited by 187 papers, 9 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
187citing papers in PubMed, 9 pooled it
16.3field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT04377464 unknown statusnot on this map

COVID-19 - Quality of Life After Infection

TypeobservationalSponsorChinese University of Hong KongRan2020 to 2022Enrolled200ConditionsCOVID-19, Quality of LifeArmsSF12, EQ-5D-5L and work status standardized quantitative assessments
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

187 citing papers in PubMed, 9 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 478 citations in OpenAlex.

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  4. Cardiovascular Manifestations and Mechanisms in Patients with COVID-19.Trends in endocrinology and metabolism: TEM · 2020
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  13. Update on Omicron variant and its threat to vulnerable populations.Public health in practice (Oxford, England) · 2024
    Review
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127 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 6 institutions in 3 countries.

Shi ZhaoJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China.
Salihu S MusaDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China.
Qianying LinMichigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, MI 48104, USA.
Jinjun RanSchool of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China.
Guangpu YangDepartment of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China.
Weiming WangSchool of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300, China.
Yijun LouDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China.
Lin YangSchool of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China.
Daozhou GaoDepartment of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China.
Daihai HeDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China.
Maggie H WangJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China.
Hong Kong Polytechnic University · HKChinese University of Hong Kong · HKHuaiyin Normal University · CNShanghai Normal University · CNUniversity of Hong Kong · HKUniversity of Michigan · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number,

methodsWe modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals (SI) of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses (CoV), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate

resultsWe confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 (95% CI: 403-540) unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold (95% CI: 18-25) in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the

conclusionThe under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation.

Indexed as

Chinamodellingnovel coronavirusoutbreakreproduction numberunderreporting

Identifiers

PMID32024089
PMCPMC7074332
OpenAlexW3004200727

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.