Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32021470›Full record

ArticleClinical epidemiology2020

Estimation of Cardiovascular Risk from Self-Reported Knowledge of Risk Factors: Insights from the Minnesota Heart Survey.

Sue Duval, Jeremy R Van't Hof, Lyn M Steffen, Russell V Luepker

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical epidemiology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
2.4field-weighted citation impact, top 10% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 26 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. A digital tool for self-reporting cardiovascular risk factors: The RADICAL study.International journal of cardiology. Cardiovascular risk and prevention · 2025
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Sue DuvalCardiovascular Division, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Jeremy R Van't HofCardiovascular Division, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Lyn M SteffenDivision of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Russell V LuepkerDivision of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
University of Minnesota · USUniversity of Minnesota Medical Center · US

Funding

Testing a Community Intervention to Increase Aspirin Use for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular DiseaseR01HL126041 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · PI LUEPKER, RUSSELL V · 2015 to 2019
$3.5M
NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL126041
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCost-effective primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) relies on accuracy of risk assessment. Current risk scores require clinical and laboratory measures, are expensive and are often difficult to apply in the population setting.

objectiveThis study sought to estimate CVD risk from individuals' knowledge of their own CVD risk factors and compare it to the risk calculated from measured risk factors.

methodsUsing the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Risk Equations (PCE), we calculated 10-year CVD risk for 9856 primary prevention individuals aged 40-79 in the Minnesota Heart Survey (MHS). Using log-linear regression models, we estimated PCE risk from the individual's self-reported knowledge of four dichotomous risk factors: hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, and smoking. Age was included in all models, and models were developed separately in women and men. Model performance was assessed internally using leave-one-out cross-validation.

resultsThe median measured PCE CVD risk in women was 2.1% (IQR: 0.8-5.6%), and in men was 6.3% (3.1-13.0%). Using the newly developed equations, the median estimated risk was 2.2% (0.9-5.8%) in women, and 6.9% (3.2-13.1%) in men. Using a threshold of 7.5% to categorize low and high risk, the novel risk calculation gave an accuracy of 95% for women and 87% for men compared to the measured PCE risk. The negative predictive value was 97% for women and 91% in men.

conclusionSelf-reported knowledge of risk may be useful in the identification of individuals at low risk for CV events, however, should always be followed up with measurement of risk factors if symptoms or history suggest CVD.

Indexed as

cardiovascular diseasesepidemiologyrisk assessmentrisk factorsself-reportsurvey

Identifiers

PMID32021470
PMCPMC6969684
OpenAlexW2999839408

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.