Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32019971›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2020

Nationwide prediction of type 2 diabetes comorbidities.

Piotr Dworzynski, Martin Aasbrenn, Klaus Rostgaard, Mads Melbye, Thomas Alexander Gerds, Henrik Hjalgrim, Tune H Pers

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
11.9field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 52 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Piotr DworzynskiThe Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Basic Metabolic Research, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Martin AasbrennThe Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Basic Metabolic Research, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Klaus RostgaardDepartment of Epidemiology Research, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Mads MelbyeDepartment of Epidemiology Research, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8264-6785
Thomas Alexander GerdsDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Henrik Hjalgrim *Department of Epidemiology Research, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Tune H Pers *The Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Basic Metabolic Research, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark. tune.pers@sund.ku.dk.
Statens Serum Institut · DKUniversity of Copenhagen · DK

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Identification of individuals at risk of developing disease comorbidities represents an important task in tackling the growing personal and societal burdens associated with chronic diseases. We employed machine learning techniques to investigate to what extent data from longitudinal, nationwide Danish health registers can be used to predict individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) comorbidities. Leveraging logistic regression-, random forest- and gradient boosting models and register data spanning hospitalizations, drug prescriptions and contacts with primary care contractors from >200,000 individuals newly diagnosed with T2D, we predicted five-year risk of heart failure (HF), myocardial infarction (MI), stroke (ST), cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). For HF, MI, CVD, and CKD, register-based models outperformed a reference model leveraging canonical individual characteristics by achieving area under the receiver operating characteristic curve improvements of 0.06, 0.03, 0.04, and 0.07, respectively. The top 1,000 patients predicted to be at highest risk exhibited observed incidence ratios exceeding 4.99, 3.52, 1.97 and 4.71 respectively. In summary, prediction of T2D comorbidities utilizing Danish registers led to consistent albeit modest performance improvements over reference models, suggesting that register data could be leveraged to systematically identify individuals at risk of developing disease comorbidities.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesComorbidityDenmarkDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2FemaleHeart FailureHumansMaleMiddle AgedMyocardial InfarctionRegistriesRenal Insufficiency, ChronicStroke

Identifiers

PMID32019971
PMCPMC7000818
OpenAlexW3005474298

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.