Infectious Salmon Anemia and Farm-Level Culling Strategies.

Infectious salmon anemia (ISA) is an infectious disease, and outbreaks must be handled to avoid spread between salmon sea farms. Intensive culling at infected farms is an important biosecurity measure to avoid further spread but is also a costly intervention that farmers try to avoid. A lack of action, however, may lead to new outbreaks in nearby salmon sea farms, with severe impacts on both economy and animal welfare. Here, we aim to explore how a time delay between a detected outbreak and the culling of both infected cages and entire farms affects the further spread of the disease. We use a previously published model to calculate how many salmon sea farms were directly infected in each outbreak. To investigate the effect of culling on the further spread of disease, we use the number of months elapsed from the detected outbreak to (a) the first cage being depopulated, and (b) to the entire salmon sea farm being depopulated as predictors of how many new farms the virus was transmitted to, after controlling for contact between the farms. We show that the lapse in time before the first cage is depopulated correlates positively with how many new salmon sea farms are infected, indicating that infected cages should be culled with as little time delay as possible. The model does not have sufficient power to separate between culling of only cages assumed to be infected and the entire farm, and, consequently, provides no direct empirical evidence for the latter. Lack of evidence is not evidence, however, and we argue that a high probability of spread between cages in infected salmon sea farms still supports the depopulation of entire farms as the safest option.