Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32009819›Full record

ArticleCancer management and research2019

Cancer Incidence Trends From 1999 to 2015 And Contributions Of Various Cancer Types To The Overall Burden: Projections To 2030 And Extrapolation Of Economic Burden In Saudi Arabia.

Abdul Rahman Jazieh, Omar B Da'ar, Mohammad Alkaiyat, Yasmine A Zaatreh, Aida A Saad, Rami Bustami, Mashael Alrujaib, Khaled Alkattan

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cancer management and research, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  5. Review
  6. Review
  7. Article
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  9. Article
  10. Public Knowledge, Practice, and Attitude Regarding Cancer Screening: A Community-Based Study in Saudi Arabia.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Review
  14. An Observational Cross-Sectional Study on Cancer Awareness and Beliefs about Carcinogens among Saudi Women.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Observational
  15. Article
  16. Phytochemical Analysis ofPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Observational
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Abdul Rahman JaziehOncology Department, King Abdulaziz Medical City, National Guards Health Affairs Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.ORCID 0000-0001-5465-7698
Omar B Da'arDepartment of Health Systems Management, College of Public Health and Health Informatics, King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.ORCID 0000-0002-2153-8761
Mohammad AlkaiyatOncology Department, King Abdulaziz Medical City, National Guards Health Affairs Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.ORCID 0000-0003-3500-6050
Yasmine A ZaatrehDepartment of Surgery, College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Aida A SaadDepartment of Surgery, College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.ORCID 0000-0002-8785-3828
Rami BustamiDepartment of Healthcare Management, College of Business, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Mashael AlrujaibDepartment of Radiology, King Faisal Specialist Hospital & Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Khaled AlkattanDepartment of Surgery, College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.ORCID 0000-0002-1372-9883

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCancer incidence in Saudi Arabia has increased for the last two decades, ratcheting up to global levels. The study aimed to analyze cancer trends and the contributions of various cancer types, forecast incidence, and estimate the economic burden in 2030.

methodsA national-level cohort study utilizing the Data of Cancer Registry of patients who were diagnosed in 1999-2015. New cases in 2016-2030 were forecast and predicted based on 1999-2015 data. We used growth assumption and regression analysis to predict the trends of cancer cases. We assessed the contributions of cancer types to incidence trends. We carried forecasting of new cases and extrapolation of the potential economic burden. We conducted a sensitivity analysis of the cost of cancer with respect to changes in economic and epidemiologic factors.

resultsThe findings suggest that the number of known cancer cases increased by 136% from 1999 to 2015 and is projected to rise by 63% in 2030. The forecast indicates female cases will account for higher number of cases and greater proportion increase. The future cost of all cancer types would be estimated at $7.91 billion in 2015 value, of which $3.76 billion will be attributable to care management and $4.15 billion in lost productivity. With the assumption of growth of the aged-standardized incidence rate, the costs of care management and lost productivity are projected to be $5.85 and $6.47 billion, respectively in 2030, an increase of 56% in each component. The future undiscounted total estimated economic burden for the period 2015-2030 would be $159.44 billion, of which 47.5% will be attributable to care management. Estimates were robust to uncertainty, but the 5-year prevalence of cancer survivorship would account for the greatest variability.

conclusionOur model showed an upsurge of cancer burden in terms of incidence and the potential economic burden, which may inform cancer control measures.

Indexed as

cancer economic burdencancer trendsSaudi Arabiathe 2030 cancer burden projection

Identifiers

PMID32009819
PMCPMC6861167

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.