Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32002549›Full record

ArticleJournal of medical entomology2020

LYMESIM 2.0: An Updated Simulation of Blacklegged Tick (Acari: Ixodidae) Population Dynamics and Enzootic Transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae).

Holly Gaff, Rebecca J Eisen, Lars Eisen, Robyn Nadolny, Jenna Bjork, Andrew J Monaghan

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of medical entomology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed.

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  5. Impact of climate change on the tick-host-pathogen complex: distribution patterns, disease incidence, and host infestation.Revista brasileira de parasitologia veterinaria = Brazilian journal of veterinary parasitology : Orgao Oficial do Colegio Brasileiro de Parasitologia Veterinaria · 2025
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  16. The environment, the tick, and the pathogen - It is an ensemble.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Holly GaffDepartment of Biological Sciences, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA.
Rebecca J EisenDivision of Vector-Borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO.
Lars EisenDivision of Vector-Borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO.
Robyn NadolnyArmy Public Health Center, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD.
Jenna BjorkMinnesota Department of Health, St. Paul, MN.
Andrew J MonaghanResearch Computing, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO.

Funding

ACL HHS U01CK000490Intramural CDC HHS CC999999NCEZID CDC HHS U01 CK000490NCEZID CDC HHS U50 CK000204
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne disease in the United States, and the number of cases reported each year continues to rise. The complex nature of the relationships between the pathogen (Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto), the tick vector (Ixodes scapularis Say), multiple vertebrate hosts, and numerous environmental factors creates challenges for understanding and predicting tick population and pathogen transmission dynamics. LYMESIM is a mechanistic model developed in the late 1990s to simulate the life-history of I. scapularis and transmission dynamics of B. burgdorferi s.s. Here we present LYMESIM 2.0, a modernized version of LYMESIM, that includes several modifications to enhance the biological realism of the model and to generate outcomes that are more readily measured under field conditions. The model is tested for three geographically distinct locations in New York, Minnesota, and Virginia. Model-simulated timing and densities of questing nymphs, infected nymphs, and abundances of nymphs feeding on hosts are consistent with field observations and reports for these locations. Sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of temperature in host finding for the density of nymphs, the importance of transmission from small mammals to ticks on the density of infected nymphs, and temperature-related tick survival for both density of nymphs and infected nymphs. A key challenge for accurate modeling of these metrics is the need for regionally representative inputs for host populations and their fluctuations. LYMESIM 2.0 is a useful public health tool that downstream can be used to evaluate tick control interventions and can be adapted for other ticks and pathogens.

Indexed as

Borrelia burgdorferiModels, BiologicalAnimalsComputer SimulationEcosystemIxodidaeLyme DiseaseMammalsNymphPopulation DensityWeatherIxodes scapularisLyme diseaseLYMESIMmathematical modeltick-borne diseases

Identifiers

PMID32002549
PMCPMC9376966

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.