ArticleTravel medicine and infectious disease
Quantifying the risk of Zika virus spread in Asia during the 2015-16 epidemic in Latin America and the Caribbean: A modeling study.
Article in Travel medicine and infectious disease. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Exploring Zika's dynamics: A scoping review journey from epidemic to equations through mathematical modelling.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Review
- Multi-omics analysis of antiviral interactions of Elizabethkingia anophelis and Zika virus.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Characteristics, risk factors, and outcomes related to Zika virus infection during pregnancy in Northeastern Thailand: A prospective pregnancy cohort study, 2018-2020.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- The global trends and regional differences in incidence of Zika virus infection and implications for Zika virus infection prevention.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Zika vector competence data reveals risks of outbreaks: the contribution of the European ZIKAlliance project.Nature communications · 2022Article
- COVID-19 and the aviation industry: The interrelationship between the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the frequency of flights on the EU market.Annals of tourism research · 2021Article
- Impact of COVID-19 on air transport passenger markets: Examining evidence from the Chinese market.Journal of air transport management · 2021Article
- Yellow fever in Asia-a risk analysis.Journal of travel medicine · 2021Article
- Acceptability of a Hypothetical Zika Vaccine among Women from Colombia and Spain Exposed to ZIKV: A Qualitative Study.Vaccines · 2020Article
- Airport risk of importation and exportation of the COVID-19 pandemic.Transport policy · 2020Article
- Reprint of: Air travel and COVID-19 prevention in the pandemic and peri-pandemic period: A narrative review.Travel medicine and infectious diseaseReview
- Air travel and COVID-19 prevention in the pandemic and peri-pandemic period: A narrative review.Travel medicine and infectious diseaseReview
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3 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundNo large-scale Zika epidemic has been observed to date in Southeast Asia following the 2015-16 Latin American and the Caribbean epidemic. One hypothesis is Southeast Asian populations' partial immunity to Zika.
methodWe estimated the two conditions for a Zika outbreak emergence in Southeast Asia: (i) the risk of Zika introduction from Latin America and the Caribbean and, (ii) the risk of autochthonous transmission under varying assumptions on population immunity. We also validated the model used to estimate the risk of introduction by comparing the estimated number of Zika seeds introduced into the United States with case counts reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
resultsThere was good agreement between our estimates and case counts reported by the CDC. We thus applied the model to Southeast Asia and estimated that, on average, 1-10 seeds were introduced into Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. We also found increasing population immunity levels from 0 to 90% reduced probability of autochthonous transmission by 40% and increasing individual variation in transmission further reduced the outbreak probability.
conclusionsPopulation immunity, combined with heterogeneity in transmission, can explain why no large-scale outbreak was observed in Southeast Asia during the 2015-16 epidemic.
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