Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31990083›Full record

ArticleStatistics in medicine2020

Bayesian hierarchical meta-analytic methods for modeling surrogate relationships that vary across treatment classes using aggregate data.

Tasos Papanikos, John R Thompson, Keith R Abrams, Nicolas Städler, Oriana Ciani, Rod Taylor, Sylwia Bujkiewicz

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Statistics in medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  12. Flexible evaluation of surrogacy in platform studies.Biostatistics (Oxford, England) · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Tasos PapanikosBiostatistics Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8971-6221
John R ThompsonGenetic Epidemiology Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
Keith R AbramsBiostatistics Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
Nicolas StädlerRoche Innovation Center, F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, Basel, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0001-8212-7459
Oriana CianiCollege of Medicine and Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3607-0508
Rod TaylorCollege of Medicine and Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK.
Sylwia BujkiewiczBiostatistics Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3003-9403

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/L009854/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Surrogate endpoints play an important role in drug development when they can be used to measure treatment effect early compared to the final clinical outcome and to predict clinical benefit or harm. Such endpoints are assessed for their predictive value of clinical benefit by investigating the surrogate relationship between treatment effects on the surrogate and final outcomes using meta-analytic methods. When surrogate relationships vary across treatment classes, such validation may fail due to limited data within each treatment class. In this paper, two alternative Bayesian meta-analytic methods are introduced which allow for borrowing of information from other treatment classes when exploring the surrogacy in a particular class. The first approach extends a standard model for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints to a hierarchical meta-analysis model assuming full exchangeability of surrogate relationships across all the treatment classes, thus facilitating borrowing of information across the classes. The second method is able to relax this assumption by allowing for partial exchangeability of surrogate relationships across treatment classes to avoid excessive borrowing of information from distinctly different classes. We carried out a simulation study to assess the proposed methods in nine data scenarios and compared them with subgroup analysis using the standard model within each treatment class. We also applied the methods to an illustrative example in colorectal cancer which led to obtaining the parameters describing the surrogate relationships with higher precision.

Indexed as

Bayes TheoremBiomarkersComputer SimulationHumansMeta-Analysis as TopicBiomarkershierarchical modelsmeta-analysispartial exchangeabilitysurrogate endpointstreatment classes

Identifiers

PMID31990083
PMCPMC7065251

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.