ArticleSustainable cities and society2019
Is the decline of active travel to school unavoidable by-products of economic growth and urbanization in developing countries?
Article in Sustainable cities and society, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Socioeconomic inequalities in physical activity among children and adolescents in the UK and Ireland: a scoping review mapping evidence from 2015 to 2025.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Active School Commuting in School Children: A Narrative Review of Current Evidence and Future Research Implications.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Review
- A scoping review of complex systems methods used in population physical activity research: do they align with attributes of a whole system approach?Health research policy and systems · 2023Article
- Gender-specific social and environmental correlates of active travel to school in four European countries: the HBSC Study.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- A scoping review of systems approaches for increasing physical activity in populations.Health research policy and systems · 2022Article
- Article
- 12-Year Trends in Active School Transport across Four European Countries-Findings from the Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children (HBSC) Study.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Active Transport to School May Reduce Psychosomatic Symptoms in School-Aged Children: Data from Nine Countries.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundEconomic growth and urbanization may contribute to the decline of active travel to school (ATS). We aim to explain the change of ATS in China between 1997 and 2011 and to predict the prevalence of ATS in China within the next 30 years using various scenario.
methodsWe developed a system dynamics model to study ATS and the model assumes the prevalence of ATS is determined by the dynamic interaction of four exogenous and eight endogenous variables.
resultsThe simulated prevalence of ATS is roughly consistent with empirical data. Economic development and urban sprawl are more influential than urban design and crime in terms of ATS. Under a relatively reasonable scenario, the prevalence of ATS is projected to decrease from 73% in 2011 to 65% in 2014, and the prevalence of childhood overweight & obesity is projected to increase from 24% in 2011 to 34% in 2041. With the maintaining of economic development grow, to control urban sprawl is the most effective measure to promote ATS and decrease childhood obesity.
conclusionsOverall, the model enabled us to conduct experiments to test the possible effects of changing one or more factors taking into account their dynamic interrelationship, and our study may provide implications for policy intervention.
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