Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31983337›Full record

ReviewPhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2020

Tipping positive change.

Timothy M Lenton

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Catalysts and inhibitors of critical transitions in ecological systems.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Spread of the cycles: a feedback perspective on the Anthropocene.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2024
    Review
  12. Review
  13. Review
  14. Article
  15. Tipping Point Detection Using Reservoir Computing.Research (Washington, D.C.) · 2023
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Scaling up our understanding of tipping points.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2022
    Review
  19. Article
  20. Probabilistic early warning signals.Ecology and evolution · 2021
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

1 author.

Timothy M LentonGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Laver Building (Level 8), North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Tipping points exist in social, ecological and climate systems and those systems are increasingly causally intertwined in the Anthropocene. Climate change and biosphere degradation have advanced to the point where we are already triggering damaging environmental tipping points, and to avoid worse ones ahead will require finding and triggering positive tipping points towards sustainability in coupled social, ecological and technological systems. To help with that I outline how tipping points can occur in continuous dynamical systems and in networks, the causal interactions that can occur between tipping events across different types and scales of system-including the conditions required to trigger tipping cascades, the potential for early warning signals of tipping points, and how they could inform deliberate tipping of positive change. In particular, the same methods that can provide early warning of damaging environmental tipping points can be used to detect when a socio-technical or socio-ecological system is most sensitive to being deliberately tipped in a desirable direction. I provide some example targets for such deliberate tipping of positive change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeConservation of Natural ResourcesEcosystemclimate changeearly warningEarth systemecosystemsnetworkstipping points

Identifiers

PMID31983337
PMCPMC7017777

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.