Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31983326›Full record

ReviewPhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2020

Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities.

Monica G Turner, W John Calder, Graeme S Cumming, Terry P Hughes, Anke Jentsch, Shannon L LaDeau, Timothy M Lenton, Bryan N Shuman, Merritt R Turetsky, Zak Ratajczak and 3 more

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 62 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
62citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

62 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Review
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  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
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  11. Article
  12. Divergent responses of native predators to severe wildfire and biological invasion are mediated by life history.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2025
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Abrupt changes in algal biomass of thousands of US lakes are related to climate and are more likely in low-disturbance watersheds.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  18. Abrupt transformation of west Greenland lakes following compound climate extremes associated with atmospheric rivers.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  19. Review
  20. Review

2 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Monica G TurnerDepartment of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
W John CalderDepartment of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA.
Graeme S CummingARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
Terry P HughesARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
Anke JentschDepartment of Disturbance Ecology, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, 95440 Bayreuth, Germany.
Shannon L LaDeauCary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545, USA.
Timothy M LentonGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK.
Bryan N ShumanDepartment of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA.
Merritt R TuretskyDepartment of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada N1G 2W1.
Zak RatajczakDepartment of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
John W WilliamsDepartment of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
A Park WilliamsLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
Stephen R CarpenterCenter for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Ecologists have long studied patterns, directions and tempos of change, but there is a pressing need to extend current understanding to empirical observations of abrupt changes as climate warming accelerates. Abrupt changes in ecological systems (ACES)-changes that are fast in time or fast relative to their drivers-are ubiquitous and increasing in frequency. Powerful theoretical frameworks exist, yet applications in real-world landscapes to detect, explain and anticipate ACES have lagged. We highlight five insights emerging from empirical studies of ACES across diverse ecosystems: (i) ecological systems show ACES in some dimensions but not others; (ii) climate extremes may be more important than mean climate in generating ACES; (iii) interactions among multiple drivers often produce ACES; (iv) contingencies, such as ecological memory, frequency and sequence of disturbances, and spatial context are important; and (v) tipping points are often (but not always) associated with ACES. We suggest research priorities to advance understanding of ACES in the face of climate change. Progress in understanding ACES requires strong integration of scientific approaches (theory, observations, experiments and process-based models) and high-quality empirical data drawn from a diverse array of ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeEcosystemdisturbanceecological memoryregime shiftresiliencethresholds

Identifiers

PMID31983326
PMCPMC7017767

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.