ArticleJournal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry2020
Predicting Personalized Risk of Mood Recurrences in Youths and Young Adults With Bipolar Spectrum Disorder.
Article in Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 21 citations in OpenAlex.
- Validation and Extension of a Risk Calculator to Predict Mood Recurrence in Young People with Bipolar Disorder.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Modulation of subjective and objective indicators in college students with subthreshold depression by TEAS combined with five-tone music therapy.American journal of translational research · 2026Article
- A prognostic model for predicting functional impairment in youth mental health services.European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists · 2024Article
- Validation of a youth suicide risk calculator in an adult sample with bipolar disorder.Journal of affective disorders · 2024Article
- Establishment and validation a relapse prediction model for bipolar disorder.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2024Article
- Conceptualizing eating disorder recovery research: Current perspectives and future research directions.Journal of eating disorders · 2022Review
- A risk calculator to predict suicide attempts among individuals with early-onset bipolar disorder.Bipolar disorders · 2022Article
- Consensus on nomenclature for clinical staging models in bipolar disorder: A narrative review from the International Society for Bipolar Disorders (ISBD) Staging Task Force.Bipolar disorders · 2021Review
- Prospectively ascertained mania and hypomania among young adults with child- and adolescent-onset bipolar disorder.Bipolar disorders · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
16 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveWith each recurrence the prognosis of bipolar disorder (BD) worsens, indicating the need to identify the factors associated with increased recurrence risk. The course of BD is heterogenous and although risk factors for recurrence for the group as a whole have been reported in the literature, identification of risk factors for a specific individual are crucial for developing personalized treatments.
methodA total of 363 recovered BD youths/young adults from the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study were included. Participants were evaluated on average every 7 months for a median of 12.5 years and interviewed with standard instruments. Risk factors of recurrence from the literature were used to build a risk calculator (RC) to predict recurrence risk at different time intervals.
resultsApproximately 80% of participants had at least one syndromal recurrence and 60% had ≥2 recurrences, particularly depressions. The 6-month and 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year RC showed an accuracy between 72% and 82% for predicting any mood recurrences, and up to 80% for depression and 89% for hypo/mania (sensitivity/specificity both 0.74). The most influential recurrence risk factors were shorter recovery lengths, younger age at assessment, earlier mood onset, and more severe prior depression. Although important, other factors associated with recurrence risk, such as interepisodic subsyndromal mood symptoms and comorbidities, did not influence the RC score beyond factors noted above.
conclusionThe RC provides a useful tool for predicting an individual's recurrence risk of depression and/or hypo/mania in BD youths and for developing personalized interventions and informing research. Replication studies are warranted.
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