Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31964839›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020

Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth's climate by 2050.

Ilona M Otto, Jonathan F Donges, Roger Cremades, Avit Bhowmik, Richard J Hewitt, Wolfgang Lucht, Johan Rockström, Franziska Allerberger, Mark McCaffrey, Sylvanus S P Doe and 4 more

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 93 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
93citing papers in PubMed
197.7field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

93 citing papers in PubMed, 906 citations in OpenAlex.

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  8. The health case for a fossil fuel advertising ban.CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2026
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33 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors at 7 institutions in 7 countries.

Ilona M OttoEarth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; ilona.otto@pik-potsdam.de donges@pik-potsdam.de john@pik-potsdam.de.ORCID 0000-0003-4935-7660
Jonathan F DongesEarth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; ilona.otto@pik-potsdam.de donges@pik-potsdam.de john@pik-potsdam.de.
Roger CremadesClimate Service Center Germany (GERICS), 20095 Hamburg, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-4514-2462
Avit BhowmikStockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 11419 Stockholm, Sweden.
Richard J HewittInformation and Computational Sciences Group, James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland, United Kingdom.
Wolfgang LuchtEarth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
Johan RockströmEarth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
Franziska AllerbergerEarth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
Mark McCaffreyUN Climate Change community for Education, Communication and Outreach Stakeholders (ECOS), 3046 Kisbágyon, Hungary.
Sylvanus S P DoeGeoSustainability Consulting, Adabraka-Accra, Ghana.
Alex LenfernaDepartment of Philosophy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-3350.
Nerea MoránGerminando Sociedad Cooperativa Madrid, 28012 Madrid, Spain.
Detlef P van VuurenClimate, Air and Energy, PBL Netherlands Environmental Agency, 2594 AV Den Haag, The Netherlands.
Hans Joachim SchellnhuberEarth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; ilona.otto@pik-potsdam.de donges@pik-potsdam.de john@pik-potsdam.de.
Leibniz Association · DEStockholm Resilience Centre · SEGerman Climate Computing Centre · DEJames Hutton Institute · GBNetherlands Environmental Assessment Agency · NLUniversität Innsbruck · ATUniversity of Washington · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth's climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation.

Indexed as

climate changedecarbonizationParis Agreementsocial tipping elementssocial tipping interventions

Identifiers

PMID31964839
PMCPMC7007533
OpenAlexW3002016767

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.