Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31961773›Full record

ArticlePsychological science2020

Same Data Set, Different Conclusions: Preschool Delay of Gratification Predicts Later Behavioral Outcomes in a Preregistered Study.

Laura E Michaelson, Yuko Munakata

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Psychological science, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Laura E MichaelsonAmerican Institutes for Research, Washington, D.C.ORCID 0000-0003-0321-025X
Yuko MunakataDepartment of Psychology, University of California, Davis.

Funding

Developing Inhibitory ControlR01HD078532 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO · PI MUNAKATA, YUKO · 2017 to 2021
$1.5M
NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD078532
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

One simple marshmallow test in preschool children predicts an array of important life outcomes, according to multiple studies spanning several decades. However, a recent conceptual replication casts doubt on these famous findings. We conducted an independent, preregistered secondary analysis to test whether previously observed longitudinal associations between preschool delay of gratification and adolescent outcomes would be conceptually replicated. Associations were significant for three of the five outcomes we tested using the analytic approach employed in the original studies of the marshmallow test. Relationships between delay of gratification and problem behavior held in bivariate, multivariate, and multilevel models; in contrast, no significant relationships between delay and problem behavior were found in the other recent replication, even though both studies used the same data set. These relationships were better explained by social support than by self-control, suggesting that the marshmallow test is predictive because it reflects aspects of a child's early environment that are important over the long term. This novel interpretation of the classic findings points to new directions for intervention.

Indexed as

Academic SuccessAdolescent BehaviorDelay DiscountingProblem BehaviorAdolescentChild BehaviorChild, PreschoolFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleMultivariate AnalysisRegression AnalysisTime Factorsdelay of gratificationmarshmallow testopen datapreregisteredproblem behaviorself-controlsocial support

Identifiers

PMID31961773
PMCPMC7197218

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.