ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis2021
Global Transmission of Live Polioviruses: Updated Dynamic Modeling of the Polio Endgame.
Article in Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
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Who cites it
33 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 45 citations in OpenAlex.
- Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020-2024.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Pooled it
- Quantifying the benefits of improved operations for polio outbreak response: A model-based analysis.Vaccine · 2026Article
- Characterization of environmental and clinical surveillance inputs to support prospective integrated modeling of the polio endgame.PLOS global public health · 2025Review
- Increasing Population Immunity Prior to Globally-Coordinated Cessation of Bivalent Oral Poliovirus Vaccine (bOPV).Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Modeling the spread of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks and interventions: A case study of Nigeria.Vaccine: X · 2024Article
- Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and Responses in New York State.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Worst-case scenarios: Modeling uncontrolled type 2 polio transmission.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2024Article
- Coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: Options and potential consequences.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2024Review
- The impact of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on global polio eradication.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) choices and the consequences of delaying outbreak response.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Article
- Modeling undetected live type 1 wild poliovirus circulation after apparent interruption of transmission: Pakistan and Afghanistan.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2023Article
- Modeling scenarios for ending poliovirus transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2023Article
- Looking back at prospective modeling of outbreak response strategies for managing global type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) cessation.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Complexity of options related to restarting oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in national immunization programs after OPV cessation.Gates open research · 2023Article
- Health economic analysis of vaccine options for the polio eradication endgame: 2022-2036.Expert review of vaccines · 2022Article
- Effect of Population Partitioning on the Probability of Silent Circulation of Poliovirus.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Modeling Poliovirus Surveillance and Immunization Campaign Quality Monitoring Costs for Pakistan and Afghanistan for 2019-2023.Open forum infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Insights From Modeling Preventive Supplemental Immunization Activities as a Strategy to Eliminate Wild Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Nearly 20 years after the year 2000 target for global wild poliovirus (WPV) eradication, live polioviruses continue to circulate with all three serotypes posing challenges for the polio endgame. We updated a global differential equation-based poliovirus transmission and stochastic risk model to include programmatic and epidemiological experience through January 2020. We used the model to explore the likely dynamics of poliovirus transmission for 2019-2023, which coincides with a new Global Polio Eradication Initiative Strategic Plan. The model stratifies the global population into 72 blocks, each containing 10 subpopulations of approximately 10.7 million people. Exported viruses go into subpopulations within the same block and within groups of blocks that represent large preferentially mixing geographical areas (e.g., continents). We assign representative World Bank income levels to the blocks along with polio immunization and transmission assumptions, which capture some of the heterogeneity across countries while still focusing on global poliovirus transmission dynamics. We also updated estimates of reintroduction risks using available evidence. The updated model characterizes transmission dynamics and resulting polio cases consistent with the evidence through 2019. Based on recent epidemiological experience and prospective immunization assumptions for the 2019-2023 Strategic Plan, the updated model does not show successful eradication of serotype 1 WPV by 2023 or successful cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine serotype 2-related viruses.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.