Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31958122›Full record

ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute2020

Recent Trends in the Incidence and Survival of Stage 1A Pancreatic Cancer: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Analysis.

Amanda L Blackford, Marcia Irene Canto, Alison P Klein, Ralph H Hruban, Michael Goggins

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 157 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
157citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

157 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  4. Alterations in the Duodenal Fluid Microbiome of Patients With Pancreatic Cancer.Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association · 2022
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  15. Pancreatic Cancer Detection Consortium Biomarker Bakeoff: A Phase II Blinded Biomarker Validation and Panel Discovery Study.Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research · 2026
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97 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Amanda L BlackfordAffiliations of authors: Department of Oncology, The Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Marcia Irene CantoAffiliations of authors: Department of Oncology, The Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Alison P KleinAffiliations of authors: Department of Oncology, The Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Ralph H HrubanAffiliations of authors: Department of Oncology, The Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Michael GogginsAffiliations of authors: Department of Oncology, The Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore, MD, USA.

Funding

Translational Research Central ServicesP30CA006973 · NCI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI WILLIAM George NELSON · 1985 to 2026
$208.6M
Tumor Antigens for Individual Signatures and TherapyP50CA062924 · NCI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI JAFFEE, ELIZABETH M. · 1993 to 2022
$54.6M
Using markers to improve pancreatic cancer screening and surveillance: a multi-center studyU01CA210170 · NCI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI Michael G. Goggins · 2016 to 2026
$9.3M
Using Markers to Improve Pancreatic Cancer ScreeningR01CA176828 · NCI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI GOGGINS, MICHAEL G. · 2013 to 2024
$4.1M
NCI NIH HHS P30 CA006973NCI NIH HHS P50 CA062924NCI NIH HHS R01 CA176828NCI NIH HHS U01 CA210170
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRapid access to pancreatic imaging and regular pancreatic surveillance may help identify stage I pancreatic cancer. We investigated recent trends in the stage of newly diagnosed pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDACs), age at diagnosis, and survival.

methodsTrends in age-adjusted incidence of stage IA PDAC between 2004 and 2016 were determined from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. All tests were two-sided.

resultsThe incidence of stage IA PDAC cases diagnosed increased statistically significantly from 2004 to 2016 (annual percent change = 14.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 11.4 to 17.7; P < .001). During the study period, average age at diagnosis for stage IA and IB casesAQ3 declined by 3.5 years (95% CI = 1.2 to 5.9; P = .004) and 5.5 years (95% CI = 3.4 to 7.6; P < .001), whereas average age increased for higher-stage cases (by 0.6 to 1.4 years). Among stage IA cases, the proportion of blacks was smaller (10.2% vs 12.5%), and the proportion of other non-Caucasians was higher compared with higher-stage cases (11.9% vs 8.4%; P < .001). Stage IA cases were more likely to carry insurance (vs Medicaid or none) than higher-stage cases (cases aged younger than 65 years; odds ratio = 2.45, 95% CI = 1.96 to 3.06; P < .001). The 5-year overall survival for stage IA PDAC improved from 44.7% (95% CI = 31.4 to 63.7) in 2004 to 83.7% (95% CI = 78.6% to 89.2%) in 2012; 10-year survival improved from 36.7% (95% CI = 24.1 to 55.8) in 2004 to 49.0% (95% CI = 37.2% to 64.6%) in 2007.

conclusionsIn recent years, the proportion of patients diagnosed with stage IA PDAC has increased, their average age at diagnosis has decreased, and their overall survival has improved. These trends may be the result of improved early diagnosis and early detection.

Indexed as

AgedAge FactorsCarcinoma, Pancreatic DuctalFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasm StagingPancreatic NeoplasmsSEER ProgramSurvival RateUnited States

Identifiers

PMID31958122
PMCPMC7669234

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.