Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31937655›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2020

Impact of loss-to-follow-up on cancer survival estimates for small populations: a simulation study using Hospital-Based Cancer Registries in Japan.

Ayako Okuyama, Matthew Barclay, Cong Chen, Takahiro Higashi

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Ayako OkuyamaCenter for Cancer Control and Information Services, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan aokuyama@ncc.go.jp.ORCID 0000-0003-4732-3272
Matthew BarclayDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Cong ChenNational Cancer Registration and Analysis Service, Public Health England, London, UK.
Takahiro HigashiCenter for Cancer Control and Information Services, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesThe accuracy of the ascertainment of vital status impacts the validity of cancer survival. This study assesses the potential impact of loss-to-follow-up on survival in Japan, both nationally and in the samples seen at individual hospitals.

designSimulation study SETTING AND

participantsData of patients diagnosed in 2007, provided by the Hospital-Based Cancer Registries of 177 hospitals throughout Japan. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: We performed simulations for each cancer site, for sample sizes of 100, 1000 and 8000 patients, and for loss-to-follow-up ranging from 1% to 5%. We estimated the average bias and the variation in bias in survival due to loss-to-follow-up.

resultsThe expected bias was not associated with the sample size (with 5% loss-to-follow-up, about 2.1% for the cohort including all cancers), but a smaller sample size led to more variable bias. Sample sizes of around 100 patients, as may be seen at individual hospitals, had very variable bias: with 5% loss-to-follow-up for all cancers, 25% of samples had a bias of <1.02% and 25% of samples had a bias of > 3.06%.

conclusionSurvival should be interpreted with caution when loss-to-follow-up is a concern, especially for poor-prognosis cancers and for small-area estimates.

Indexed as

Computer SimulationRegistriesAgedFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHospitalsHumansJapanLost to Follow-UpMaleNeoplasmsRetrospective StudiesSurvival Rateoncologyprognosisregistriessimulationsurvival analysis

Identifiers

PMID31937655
PMCPMC7045161

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.