Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31936708›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2020

Forecast of Dengue Cases in 20 Chinese Cities Based on the Deep Learning Method.

Jiucheng Xu, Keqiang Xu, Zhichao Li, Fengxia Meng, Taotian Tu, Lei Xu, Qiyong Liu

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
36citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
12.4field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

36 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 97 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Jiucheng XuCollege of Computer and Information Engineering, Henan Normal University, Xinxiang 453007, China.
Keqiang XuCollege of Computer and Information Engineering, Henan Normal University, Xinxiang 453007, China.
Zhichao LiMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Fengxia MengState Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
Taotian TuInstitute of Disinfection and Vector Biological Control, Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing 400042, China.
Lei XuMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.ORCID 0000-0003-2566-2118
Qiyong LiuState Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention · CNXinxiang University · CNTsinghua University · CN

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world, and accurate forecasts of dengue in a timely manner might help local government implement effective control measures. To obtain the accurate forecasting of DF cases, it is crucial to model the long-term dependency in time series data, which is difficult for a typical machine learning method. This study aimed to develop a timely accurate forecasting model of dengue based on long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks while only considering monthly dengue cases and climate factors. The performance of LSTM models was compared with the other previously published models when predicting DF cases one month into the future. Our results showed that the LSTM model reduced the average the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the predictions by 12.99% to 24.91% and reduced the average RMSE of the predictions in the outbreak period by 15.09% to 26.82% as compared with other candidate models. The LSTM model achieved superior performance in predicting dengue cases as compared with other previously published forecasting models. Moreover, transfer learning (TL) can improve the generalization ability of the model in areas with fewer dengue incidences. The findings provide a more precise forecasting dengue model and could be used for other dengue-like infectious diseases.

Indexed as

Deep LearningForecastingCitiesDengueDisease OutbreaksHumansIncidenceNeural Networks, Computerdeep learningdengue feverforecast modellong short-term memorytransfer learning

Identifiers

PMID31936708
PMCPMC7014037
OpenAlexW2999103859

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.