Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31932410›Full record

ArticleCancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology2020

A New Comprehensive Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Model Incorporating Family History, Personal Characteristics, and Environmental Factors.

Yingye Zheng, Xinwei Hua, Aung K Win, Robert J MacInnis, Steven Gallinger, Loic Le Marchand, Noralane M Lindor, John A Baron, John L Hopper, James G Dowty and 4 more

Open access · bronzeAbstract readMulticenter StudyValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
2.7field-weighted citation impact, top 8% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 43 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  11. Recalibrating the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium Environmental Risk Score for Use in US Veterans.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2024
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  17. Performance of polygenic risk scores for cancer prediction in a racially diverse academic biobank.Genetics in medicine : official journal of the American College of Medical Genetics · 2022
    Article
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  20. Translating Cancer Risk Prediction Models into Personalized Cancer Risk Assessment Tools: Stumbling Blocks and Strategies for Success.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2020
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors at 9 institutions in 5 countries.

Yingye ZhengDivision of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.ORCID 0000-0002-5559-6847
Xinwei HuaDivision of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.
Aung K WinCentre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-2794-5261
Robert J MacInnisCentre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
Steven GallingerLunenfeld Tanenbaum Research Institute, Mount Sinai Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Loic Le MarchandEpidemiology Program, University of Hawaii Cancer Center, Honolulu, Hawaii.
Noralane M LindorDepartment of Health Science Research, Mayo Clinic Arizona, Scottsdale, Arizona.
John A BaronDepartment of Medicine, University of North Carolina School of Medicine, and Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, Chapel Hill, North Carolina.ORCID 0000-0003-3461-1056
John L HopperCentre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
James G DowtyCentre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
Antonis C AntoniouCancer Research UK, Genetic Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-9223-3116
Jiayin ZhengDivision of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.ORCID 0000-0002-5559-6847
Mark A Jenkins *Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
Polly A Newcomb *Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington. pnewcomb@fredhutch.org.
The University of Melbourne · AUUniversity of Washington · USCancer Center of Hawaii · USFred Hutch Cancer Center · USLunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute · CAMayo Clinic in Arizona · USThe Royal Melbourne Hospital · AUUniversity of Cambridge · GBUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill · US

Funding

UNC-CH CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH &SUSCEPTIBILITYP30ES010126 · NIEHS · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI Melissa A. Troester · 2001 to 2026
$36.3M
USC Consortium:Colorectal Cancer Family RegistryU01CA074799 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA · PI HAILE, ROBERT WILLIAM · 1997 to 2008
$20.4M
Data sharing: the Colon Cancer Family Registry CohortU01CA167551 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE · PI Daniel David BUCHANAN, Steven Gallinger · 2018 to 2026
$16.8M
SEATTLE FAMILIAL COLORECTAL CANCER REGISTRYU01CA074794 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI NEWCOMB, POLLY A · 1997 to 2007
$14.1M
ONTARIO REGISTRY FOR STUDIES OF FAMILIAL COLON CANCERU01CA074783 · NCI · CANCER CARE ONTARIO · PI GALLINGER, STEVEN · 1997 to 2008
$12.5M
Colon Cancer Family Registry CohortUM1CA167551 · NCI · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI HAILE, ROBERT WILLIAM, JENKINS, MARK A · 2013 to 2017
$11.3M
FAMILIAL COLORECTAL NEOPLASIA COLLABORATIVE GROUPU01CA074800 · NCI · MAYO CLINIC ROCHESTER · PI LINDOR, NORALANE MOREY · 1997 to 2007
$9.1M
The Colon Cancer Family Registry: USC ConsortiumU24CA074799 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA · PI HAILE, ROBERT WILLIAM · 2008 to 2011
$7.6M
The Colon Cancer Family Registry: SeattleU24CA074794 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI NEWCOMB, POLLY A · 2008 to 2011
$7.0M
AUSTRALASIAN COLORECTAL CANCER FAMILY REGISTRYU01CA097735 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE · PI HOPPER, JOHN L · 2002 to 2007
$6.9M
The Colon Cancer Family Registry: AustralasiaU24CA097735 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE · PI HOPPER, JOHN L · 2008 to 2011
$6.2M
The Familial Colorectal Neoplasia Collaborative GroupU24CA074800 · NCI · MAYO CLINIC ROCHESTER · PI LINDOR, NORALANE MOREY, THIBODEAU, STEPHEN NORMAN · 2008 to 2011
$5.3M
Cancer Research UK 20861NCI NIH HHS HHSN261201300012INCI NIH HHS K05 CA152715NCI NIH HHS N01 CN067009NCI NIH HHS N01 PC035142NCI NIH HHS R01 CA170122NCI NIH HHS R01 CA236558NCI NIH HHS U01 CA074783NCI NIH HHS U01 CA074794NCI NIH HHS U01 CA074799NCI NIH HHS U01 CA074800NCI NIH HHS U01 CA097735NCI NIH HHS U01 CA167551NCI NIH HHS U24 CA074783NCI NIH HHS U24 CA074794NCI NIH HHS U24 CA074799NCI NIH HHS U24 CA074800NCI NIH HHS U24 CA097735NCI NIH HHS UM1 CA167551NIEHS NIH HHS P30 ES010126
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeReducing colorectal cancer incidence and mortality through early detection would improve efficacy if targeted. We developed a colorectal cancer risk prediction model incorporating personal, family, genetic, and environmental risk factors to enhance prevention.

methodsA familial risk profile (FRP) was calculated to summarize individuals' risk based on detailed cancer family history (FH), family structure, probabilities of mutation in major colorectal cancer susceptibility genes, and a polygenic component. We developed risk models, including individuals' FRP or binary colorectal cancer FH, and colorectal cancer risk factors collected at enrollment using population-based colorectal cancer cases (

resultsThe E/O [95% confidence interval (CI)] for FRP models for population-based relatives were 1.04 (0.74-1.45) for men and 0.86 (0.64-1.20) for women, and for clinic-based relatives were 1.15 (0.87-1.58) for men and 1.04 (0.76-1.45) for women. The age-adjusted AUCs (95% CI) for FRP models for population-based relatives were 0.69 (0.60-0.78) for men and 0.70 (0.62-0.77) for women, and for clinic-based relatives were 0.77 (0.69-0.84) for men and 0.68 (0.60-0.76) for women. The incremental values of AUC for FRP over FH models for population-based relatives were 0.08 (0.01-0.15) for men and 0.10 (0.04-0.16) for women, and for clinic-based relatives were 0.11 (0.05-0.17) for men and 0.11 (0.06-0.17) for women.

conclusionsBoth models calibrated well. The FRP-based model provided better risk stratification and risk discrimination than the FH-based model. IMPACT: Our findings suggest detailed FH may be useful for targeted risk-based screening and clinical management.

Indexed as

Medical History TakingAdultAgedBiomarkers, TumorColorectal NeoplasmsDNA Mismatch RepairFeasibility StudiesFemaleFollow-Up StudiesGenetic TestingHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedMutationRegistriesBiomarkers, Tumor

Identifiers

PMID31932410
PMCPMC7060114
OpenAlexW2999965957

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.