Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31912439›Full record

ArticleDrug safety2020

Towards Automating Adverse Event Review: A Prediction Model for Case Report Utility.

Monica A Muñoz, Gerald J Dal Pan, Yu-Jung Jenny Wei, Chris Delcher, Hong Xiao, Cindy M Kortepeter, Almut G Winterstein

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Article in Drug safety, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Monica A MuñozOffice of Surveillance and Epidemiology, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD, USA. monica.munoz@fda.hhs.gov.ORCID 0000-0001-9754-1986
Gerald J Dal PanOffice of Surveillance and Epidemiology, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4874-5864
Yu-Jung Jenny WeiDepartment of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8861-6907
Chris DelcherDepartment of Pharmacy Practice and Science, College of Pharmacy, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-7214-0326
Hong XiaoDepartment of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0401-9222
Cindy M KortepeterOffice of Surveillance and Epidemiology, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7774-1443
Almut G WintersteinDepartment of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6518-5961

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionThe rapidly expanding size of the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Adverse Event Reporting System database requires modernized pharmacovigilance practices. Techniques to systematically identify high utility individual case safety reports (ICSRs) will support safety signal management.

objectivesThe aim of this study was to develop and validate a model predictive of an ICSR's pharmacovigilance utility (PVU).

methodsPVU was operationalized as an ICSR's inclusion in an FDA-authored pharmacovigilance review's case series supporting a recommendation to modify product labeling. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the association between PVU and ICSR features. The best performing model was selected for bootstrapping validation. As a sensitivity analysis, we evaluated the model's performance across subgroups of safety issues.

resultsWe identified 10,381 ICSRs evaluated in 69 pharmacovigilance reviews, of which 2115 ICSRs were included in a case series. The strongest predictors of ICSR inclusion were reporting of a designated medical event (odds ratio (OR) 1.93, 95% CI 1.54-2.43) and positive dechallenge (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.50-1.87). The strongest predictors of ICSR exclusion were death reported as the only outcome (OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.76-4.35), more than three suspect products (OR 2.69, 95% CI 2.23-3.24), and > 15 preferred terms reported (OR 2.69, 95% CI 1.90-3.82). The validated model showed modest discriminative ability (C-statistic of 0.71). Our sensitivity analysis demonstrated heterogeneity in model performance by safety issue (C-statistic range 0.58-0.74).

conclusionsOur model demonstrated the feasibility of developing a tool predictive of ICSR utility. The model's modest discriminative ability highlights opportunities for further enhancement and suggests algorithms tailored to safety issues may be beneficial.

Indexed as

Models, TheoreticalPharmacovigilanceAdverse Drug Reaction Reporting SystemsAlgorithmsDatabases, FactualDrug-Related Side Effects and Adverse ReactionsHumansReproducibility of ResultsUnited StatesUnited States Food and Drug Administration

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.