SynthesisBMJ open diabetes research & care2019
Comparing different definitions of prediabetes with subsequent risk of diabetes: an individual participant data meta-analysis involving 76 513 individuals and 8208 cases of incident diabetes.
Synthesis in BMJ open diabetes research & care, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 38 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
38 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 82 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prevalence of prediabetes and associated risk factors in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: a systematic review.BMC public health · 2025Pooled it
- Prediabetes and the risk of lung cancer incidence and mortality: A meta-analysis.Journal of diabetes investigation · 2023Pooled it
- Prediabetes and the risk of breast cancer: a meta-analysis.Frontiers in oncology · 2023Pooled it
- Effect of broccoli sprout extract and baseline gut microbiota on fasting blood glucose in prediabetes: a randomized, placebo-controlled trial.Nature microbiology · 2025Trial
- Metformin for the prevention of diabetes among people with HIV and either impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance (prediabetes) in Tanzania: a Phase II randomised placebo-controlled trial.Diabetologia · 2023 · on this mapTrial
- Using HbA1c measurements and the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score to identify undiagnosed individuals and those at risk of diabetes in primary care.BMC public health · 2023Trial
- Glycated Hemoglobin and Prediabetes: A Systematic Review of HbA1c Thresholds for Type 2 Diabetes Prevention.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Review
- Recruitment of individuals into a type 2 diabetes prevention program: the relative effectiveness and cost of different recruitment strategies used for the randomised controlled trial testing an Australian Lifestyle Change Program (AUS2PREVENT).Pilot and feasibility studies · 2026Article
- Predicting pre-diabetes progression: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ nutrition, prevention & health · 2026Article
- Association between tendency to overeat and the incidence of prediabetes: Aichi Workers' Cohort Study.Environmental health and preventive medicine · 2026Article
- Prediabetes and Risk of All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: A Prospective Study of 114 062 Adults in Mexico City.The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism · 2025Article
- Classification of self-care patterns in Korean adults with prediabetes using unsupervised machine learning: a secondary data analysis.Journal of Korean biological nursing science · 2025Article
- Prediabetes.Nature reviews. Disease primers · 2025Review
- Fasting plasma glucose outperformed 1-hour plasma glucose in predicting diabetes incidence in individuals with family history of young-onset type 2 diabetes.BMJ open diabetes research & care · 2025Article
- 2025 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association.Circulation · 2025Review
- Genetic proxies for clinical traits are associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Risk Factors for the Progression or Regression to Diabetes or Normoglycaemia for Men with Impaired Fasting Glucose.Journal of diabetes research · 2025Article
- Association between fasting blood glucose level and difficulty with chewing: the Aichi Workers' Cohort Study.Environmental health and preventive medicine · 2025Article
- Is Prediabetes Overdiagnosed? Yes: A Patient-Epidemiologist's Experience.Annals of family medicine · 2024Article
- Pros and cons of live kidney donation in prediabetics: A critical review and way forward.World journal of transplantation · 2024Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
26 authors at 20 institutions in 8 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Objective: There are currently five widely used definition of prediabetes. We compared the ability of these to predict 5-year conversion to diabetes and investigated whether there were other cut-points identifying risk of progression to diabetes that may be more useful. Research design and methods: We conducted an individual participant meta-analysis using longitudinal data included in the Obesity, Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease Collaboration. Cox regression models were used to obtain study-specific HRs for incident diabetes associated with each prediabetes definition. Harrell's C-statistics were used to estimate how well each prediabetes definition discriminated 5-year risk of diabetes. Spline and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analyses were used to identify alternative cut-points. Results: Sixteen studies, with 76 513 participants and 8208 incident diabetes cases, were available. Compared with normoglycemia, current prediabetes definitions were associated with four to eight times higher diabetes risk (HRs (95% CIs): 3.78 (3.11 to 4.60) to 8.36 (4.88 to 14.33)) and all definitions discriminated 5-year diabetes risk with good accuracy (C-statistics 0.79-0.81). Cut-points identified through spline analysis were fasting plasma glucose (FPG) 5.1 mmol/L and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) 5.0% (31 mmol/mol) and cut-points identified through ROC analysis were FPG 5.6 mmol/L, 2-hour postload glucose 7.0 mmol/L and HbA1c 5.6% (38 mmol/mol). Conclusions: In terms of identifying individuals at greatest risk of developing diabetes within 5 years, using prediabetes definitions that have lower values produced non-significant gain. Therefore, deciding which definition to use will ultimately depend on the goal for identifying individuals at risk of diabetes.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.