ArticleBulletin of the World Health Organization2020
Population-based projections of blood supply and demand, China, 2017-2036.
Article in Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 29 papers.
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Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed.
- Application and retrospective analysis of the indicator system for non-conforming blood products in Beijing.Vox sanguinis · 2026Article
- Actions to bridge the workforce and blood supply gaps - Response to "Health promotion for blood donors: A scoping review".Public health in practice (Oxford, England) · 2026Article
- Article
- Impact of shifting blood donation policy from gift to honour model: staggered difference-in-differences analysis in China.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2026Article
- Investigating the mediating role of comprehensive self-efficacy in the relationship between altruistic factors and voluntary non-remunerated blood donation behavior.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- The development and validation of a self-reinforcement scale for repeated blood donation.BMC psychology · 2025Article
- Impact of red blood cell transfusion in massive burn: a multicenter cohort study.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Outcome expectations and repeated blood donation behavior: a moderated mediation model in a prospective observational study.Annals of behavioral medicine : a publication of the Society of Behavioral Medicine · 2025Observational
- Efficacy of Preoperative Autologous Blood Donation for Surgical Treatment of Thoracic Spinal Stenosis: A Propensity-Matched Cohort Study.Orthopaedic surgery · 2024Article
- Enhancing healthcare planning using population data generated from mobile phone networks in Futaba County after the Great East Japan earthquake.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Red Blood Cell Membrane-Coated Nanoparticles Enable Incompatible Blood Transfusions.Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2024Article
- Future Blood Debt: Projecting Blood Supply and Demand of Korea Based on Subnational Population Projections (2021-2050).Journal of Korean medical science · 2024Article
- Knowledge, attitude, and practice among medical students in gaza strip towards voluntary blood donation: a cross-sectional study.BMC health services research · 2023Article
- Article
- Development and validation of a prediction tool for intraoperative blood transfusion in brain tumor resection surgery: a retrospective analysis.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Blood Service in a Region of China's Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- The influence of demographic and lifestyle factors on blood donation delay among student population: a retrospective study.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Generating real-world evidence compatible with evidence from randomized controlled trials: a novel observational study design applicable to surgical transfusion research.BMC medical research methodology · 2022Observational
- Risk factors analysis and nomogram construction for blood transfusion in elderly patients with femoral neck fractures undergoing hemiarthroplasty.International orthopaedics · 2022Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issuedCorrigendum.2020
Authors and funding
16 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo estimate the long-term effect of the changing demography in China on blood supply and demand.
methodsWe developed a predictive model to estimate blood supply and demand during 2017-2036 in mainland China and in 31 province-level regions. Model parameters were obtained from World Population Prospects,
findingsWe estimated that the change in demographic structure between 2016 (baseline year) and 2036 would result in a 16.0% decrease in blood supply (from 43.2 million units of 200 mL to 36.3 million units) and a 33.1% increase in demand (from 43.2 million units to 57.5 million units). In 2036, there would be an estimated shortage of 21.2 million units. An annual increase in supply between 0.9% and 1.8% is required to maintain a balance in blood supply and demand. This increase is not enough for every region as regional differences will increase, e.g. a blood demand/supply ratio ≥ 1.45 by 2036 is predicted in regions with large populations older than 65 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that increasing donations by 4.0% annually by people aged 18-34 years or decreasing the overall blood discard rate from 5.0% to 2.0% would not offset but help reduce the blood shortage.
conclusionMultidimensional strategies and tailored, coordinated actions are needed to deal with growing pressures on blood services because of China's ageing population.
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